#数字资产生态回暖 tonight the Federal Reserve meeting is held, and the discussion in the circle has been especially heated these days——will there be a rate cut this time? What impact will a rate cut have on our market?

To be honest, many people have got the focus wrong. We should not only pay attention to this rate cut, but also understand the **interest rate cut cycle** we are in. A rate cut is just a signal; the real positive signals come from the continued expectation of rate cuts and the maintenance of the policy cycle. When this cycle fully reverses, the market rhythm will truly change.

But this round is a bit special. The previous rate cuts were adjustments within a framework; this time is different——we have just stopped shrinking the balance sheet. What does this mean? The central bank no longer withdraws liquidity from the market. If there is another rate cut next, it’s like stopping the blood draw while still bleeding, and the effects are completely different.

More importantly, tonight’s meeting is very likely to also announce the start of **balance sheet expansion**——which means directly injecting liquidity into the market. Think about it, stopping balance sheet shrinkage + rate cut + expansion of the balance sheet, this is a triple positive overlay. From a liquidity perspective, this is like jumping from tightening directly to easing, which can be very attractive to risk assets like $BTC.

So instead of guessing what a rate cut will do, it’s better to observe the overall change in liquidity environment. This is the key to determining the subsequent market trend.