Recent signals from the central bank regarding interest rate cuts have caused some division in the crypto market.

The optimists think this is simple—interest rate cuts mean easing liquidity, more money will naturally flow into high-risk high-reward digital assets. This group has already started building positions, and in the short term, we can indeed see some coins being pushed up.

But another group of veterans thinks more deeply: why does the central bank want to cut interest rates? Isn't it because economic data doesn’t look good? If the real economy truly enters a downturn cycle, with shrinking consumption and declining corporate investment willingness, in the long run, it will hinder the funding support and application deployment of blockchain projects. These people are gradually withdrawing or at least not daring to hold heavy positions.

Looking at capital flows, after the yields of traditional safe-haven assets decline, some funds have indeed started tentatively flowing into the crypto space. The question is: are these funds enough to support a full bull market? Or are they just short-term arbitrage funds, ready to withdraw at any moment?

More critically, the macro narrative. If subsequent economic data continues to weaken, monetary policy may become further loosening, which can be seen as a hidden support for digital currencies. But at the same time, we must be alert: in an economic recession environment, ordinary people have no extra money, and companies won’t make large-scale bets on new technologies. The fundamentals of the entire industry will be affected.

So the current situation is—short-term focus on liquidity, long-term focus on economic fundamentals. The forces of these two directions are pulling in opposite ways, and the trend over the next few months may depend more on macroeconomic signals than any technical analysis.