Trump's patience regarding the Iran war is visibly running out—

Anger is surfacing, helplessness is increasing, and the war might end within two or three weeks—these signals point to one conclusion: the United States is looking for a dignified way to step down, regardless of whether Hormuz opens or not—
—Abandoning the key goal of reopening Hormuz?
This is the most important word in this message: abandon. After so long of fighting, so much spent, so many lives lost, the Strait is still blocked and they just withdraw?
This is not a victory, at best it’s a stop-loss—
A real estate developer’s most difficult move is: leaving a project unfinished and still telling the public it’s a “strategic adjustment”—
From a macro perspective, this outcome is more complex than imagined: war ends → short-term geopolitical risk premium drops → oil prices fall → inflation expectations improve → market briefly celebrates.
But the reality is, if Hormuz remains closed → energy supply chains are permanently constrained → the oil price center shifts upward permanently → inflation bottom is raised → the Federal Reserve becomes locked—
The market will celebrate the ceasefire first, then slowly realize the bill is still there—
Ceasefire does not mean the problem is solved, it just changes the form of the problem but it continues to exist—
#川普 #Iran #霍尔木兹 #oil prices #geopolitics