La prolongation de la guerre en Iran entraîne une alerte sur le risque de prêts non performants sur le marché du crédit privé.

Certain analyses point out that as the long-term conflict in Iran persists, combined with high interest rates and economic uncertainty, the potential for underlying non-performing issues in the private credit market to become reality is increasing. Although on the surface the scale of overdue loans appears small, in reality, the repayment burdens of borrowing companies are continuously accumulating, and risks may spread throughout the financial sector.

According to financial industry sources on the 21st, responsible researchers Shen Zaizan, Han Junxi, and research committee member Huang Xigui from NH Financial Research Institute diagnosed in a report published on the 20th that the prolongation of the Middle East conflict is intensifying inflation concerns and the possibility of further interest rate hikes. Private credit refers to loans made outside the banking loan or public corporate bond markets, which have rapidly expanded in recent years relying on low-interest funds. The issue is that a significant portion of loans executed during the COVID-19 pandemic under low interest rate conditions adopted floating rate structures, and as interest rates have risen since then, companies’ interest burdens and refinancing pressures have increased simultaneously. The research team explained that current borrowing costs are approximately 55% higher than in 2021.

The institute specifically pointed out that restructuring related to artificial intelligence industries may stimulate private credit non-performing issues. As of the end of last year, 19% of private credit loans were concentrated in service-oriented software, namely SaaS companies. Meanwhile, an increasing market consensus is forming that artificial intelligence is no longer just a supplementary tool for existing software businesses but may become a substitute in certain fields. Under such circumstances, the profitability prospects of related companies will weaken, and the value of assets used as collateral for loans may also decline accordingly. Ultimately, this creates a structure where technological changes lead to both deteriorating corporate performance and weakening collateral values.

The research also noted that it is difficult to fully identify risks based solely on superficial indicators. This is because, when borrowing companies are unable to pay interest in cash, the proportion of using physical interest payments (PIK)—that is, adding the interest to the principal and repaying it together at maturity—is increasing. Under this structure, although it will not be immediately classified as overdue, the appearance of soundness is maintained, but in reality, non-performing issues may be delayed or concealed. If combined with a sluggish M&A market for acquiring operational rights, additional collateral requirements triggered by declining net asset values, and prepayment pressures, the financial conditions of companies and funds could deteriorate more rapidly.

The institute emphasized that these non-performing issues will not remain confined to individual companies but may trigger a series of chain reactions such as surging fund redemption demands, banks requiring additional collateral, and liquidity shortages in funds. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its financial stability report released on the 15th, listed private credit as one of the six major pathways for amplifying financial market risks. The IMF assessed that, following the escalation of the Middle East conflict, although global financial markets are still undergoing orderly adjustments, they are under increasing gradual pressure. It also pointed out that the number of companies that have not shown overdue signs through physical payment methods but are actually in default is increasing. If this trend continues—especially with prolonged high interest rates and successive geopolitical shocks—the problems in the private credit market could worsen further, with impacts potentially extending beyond the non-bank financial sector to banking and the real economy.