【Block Rhythm】Trump has decided on the next Federal Reserve chair. On January 9th, he confirmed in an exclusive interview with the New York Times that he already has the final list of nominees in mind, though he hasn’t communicated with any candidates yet. When reporters pressed him on whether his chief economic advisor Hassett has a chance, Trump dodged the question, saying “I don’t want to say,” but then added that this advisor is “absolutely one of the people I like.”
That said, the market’s sense of smell is already ahead of the curve. According to data from prediction platform Kalshi, Waller currently has a 41% probability of being selected, closely followed by Hassett at 39%, while Warsh’s support is relatively lower at only 12%.
This choice is no small matter. What situation will the next Federal Reserve chair face? A central bank under presidential pressure to significantly lower interest rates—and this pressure is unprecedented in intensity. The current Fed is at a crossroads, and how the institution balances inflation, employment, and asset prices will directly impact global macroeconomic liquidity flows. This is crucial for investors holding crypto assets—everyone knows that Fed rate-cutting cycles are often accompanied by rebounds in risk assets.
In the short term, how will the market react? The key is whether the new chair can withstand pressure and formulate independent policies upon taking office, or will be forced by political pressure to accelerate rate cuts. If rate cuts proceed quickly, liquidity will flow into alternative assets including Bitcoin; otherwise, there may be continued pressure. This is currently a critical window, with various funds waiting for this signal.
Interest rate cut expectations, you know, just listen to it but don't take it seriously man
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Whoever Trump picks, it's all the same anyway, ultimately crypto will still get some relief in the end
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A 41% probability sounds pretty uncertain, could easily be another surprise
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The Federal Reserve getting pressed down by the President, this term is really going off the rails
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They're thinking about rate cuts before inflation is even resolved, I really can't wrap my head around this logic
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Whether it's Warsh or Hassett, whoever takes the position can't change the retail investors' fate anyway
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Really thinking rate cuts can save the crypto market? That's naive, fundamentals are what matter
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ForkTongue
· 01-09 00:21
Trump is playing Tai Chi again, 41% vs 39%, can't really tell the difference anyway
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Rate cut expectations saving the market? I think it's just blowing bubbles for crypto
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So who will actually get it? Market gamblers are even more anxious than officials
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The Fed is being pinned down by the president, never seen this before... crypto just watches the show
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Hassett's approach, sounds like a euphemism for "very likely"
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Rate cuts and inflation again, when will these days ever end
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I just want to know if Bitcoin goes up with the new chair, everything else is nonsense
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Waller at 41%, Hassett at 39%, picking either would have about the same impact on crypto market, right
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Trump: I've got it figured out, just won't tell you, 😂 typical style
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Prediction platforms are all betting, real decision-making power is still in Trump's hands, information asymmetry is too big
Trump is playing tai chi again. We've seen this playbook too many times. Anyway, the rate cut expectations are already priced in.
It's all rate cuts and market rescues. What can you even save... let's just wait and see.
Waller at 41% probability is that high? Feels like the market is betting on a chair who favors rate cuts.
The Fed is really in a tough spot this time. The president is pushing them to cut rates, and inflation is still there. Whoever they pick has to take the blame.
Whether crypto can turn around still depends on interest rate policy. This is really the critical moment.
トランプ、FRB議長候補者を最終決定間近、利下げ期待は暗号市場を救えるか？
【Block Rhythm】Trump has decided on the next Federal Reserve chair. On January 9th, he confirmed in an exclusive interview with the New York Times that he already has the final list of nominees in mind, though he hasn’t communicated with any candidates yet. When reporters pressed him on whether his chief economic advisor Hassett has a chance, Trump dodged the question, saying “I don’t want to say,” but then added that this advisor is “absolutely one of the people I like.”
That said, the market’s sense of smell is already ahead of the curve. According to data from prediction platform Kalshi, Waller currently has a 41% probability of being selected, closely followed by Hassett at 39%, while Warsh’s support is relatively lower at only 12%.
This choice is no small matter. What situation will the next Federal Reserve chair face? A central bank under presidential pressure to significantly lower interest rates—and this pressure is unprecedented in intensity. The current Fed is at a crossroads, and how the institution balances inflation, employment, and asset prices will directly impact global macroeconomic liquidity flows. This is crucial for investors holding crypto assets—everyone knows that Fed rate-cutting cycles are often accompanied by rebounds in risk assets.
In the short term, how will the market react? The key is whether the new chair can withstand pressure and formulate independent policies upon taking office, or will be forced by political pressure to accelerate rate cuts. If rate cuts proceed quickly, liquidity will flow into alternative assets including Bitcoin; otherwise, there may be continued pressure. This is currently a critical window, with various funds waiting for this signal.