Index provider MSCI is brewing a major policy adjustment, planning to exclude listed companies with cryptocurrency holdings exceeding 50% of their balance sheets from its indices. This technical change could trigger systemic risks and become a catalyst for significant adjustments in the cryptocurrency market.
Mechanism risks behind the policy
This is not a simple rule adjustment, but a forced reallocation of institutional capital. As a major global index provider, MSCI’s trackers include thousands of passive funds and ETFs. Once a company is removed, these funds must adjust their holdings in the short term, regardless of their own views.
Analysis by advocacy group BitcoinForCorporates shows that approximately 39 listed companies could be affected, with a combined market value of $113 billion. The estimated capital outflow scale is between $10 billion to $15 billion—this capital will not exit smoothly, but will be forced to enter the market through selling.
Strategy becomes the focus
The most directly impacted is cryptocurrency investment company Strategy, the largest Bitcoin holder among listed companies. According to JPMorgan’s calculations, if Strategy were excluded from the index, it could face $2.8 billion in capital pressure alone.
This means a two-layer impact: first, direct selling pressure on Strategy’s stock itself; second, indirect effects on Bitcoin price, as Strategy’s valuation is tightly correlated with BTC. When multiple coin-holding companies face similar situations simultaneously, a domino effect follows.
Critics’ doubts
Opposition comes from multiple directions. BitcoinForCorporates points out the rules are too arbitrary: “A single balance sheet metric cannot accurately determine a company’s operational nature. Even if the company’s revenue, customers, and business remain unchanged, this rule would directly exclude them.”
Investment firm Strive directly states that “the market should decide” whether investors need Bitcoin exposure. Strategy itself believes this reflects structural bias against cryptocurrency as an asset class.
The core issue is—MSCI treats cryptocurrency as a risk deviation rather than a legitimate strategic asset, and thus seeks to filter it out from the framework.
Why this becomes systemic risk
This dispute touches on deeper issues: integration friction between cryptocurrency and traditional financial frameworks. Once rule conflicts appear, they generate selling pressure—not because of negative market sentiment, but because of systemic design. This makes it far more dangerous than ordinary adjustments, constituting a forced reconfiguration rather than a natural market response.
MSCI will announce its final decision before January 15. Until then, uncertainty will continue to suppress market sentiment, and investors need to closely monitor this policy evolution.
MSCI新政将至，100-150億ドルまたは退場を余儀なくされる
Index provider MSCI is brewing a major policy adjustment, planning to exclude listed companies with cryptocurrency holdings exceeding 50% of their balance sheets from its indices. This technical change could trigger systemic risks and become a catalyst for significant adjustments in the cryptocurrency market.
Mechanism risks behind the policy
This is not a simple rule adjustment, but a forced reallocation of institutional capital. As a major global index provider, MSCI’s trackers include thousands of passive funds and ETFs. Once a company is removed, these funds must adjust their holdings in the short term, regardless of their own views.
Analysis by advocacy group BitcoinForCorporates shows that approximately 39 listed companies could be affected, with a combined market value of $113 billion. The estimated capital outflow scale is between $10 billion to $15 billion—this capital will not exit smoothly, but will be forced to enter the market through selling.
Strategy becomes the focus
The most directly impacted is cryptocurrency investment company Strategy, the largest Bitcoin holder among listed companies. According to JPMorgan’s calculations, if Strategy were excluded from the index, it could face $2.8 billion in capital pressure alone.
This means a two-layer impact: first, direct selling pressure on Strategy’s stock itself; second, indirect effects on Bitcoin price, as Strategy’s valuation is tightly correlated with BTC. When multiple coin-holding companies face similar situations simultaneously, a domino effect follows.
Critics’ doubts
Opposition comes from multiple directions. BitcoinForCorporates points out the rules are too arbitrary: “A single balance sheet metric cannot accurately determine a company’s operational nature. Even if the company’s revenue, customers, and business remain unchanged, this rule would directly exclude them.”
Investment firm Strive directly states that “the market should decide” whether investors need Bitcoin exposure. Strategy itself believes this reflects structural bias against cryptocurrency as an asset class.
The core issue is—MSCI treats cryptocurrency as a risk deviation rather than a legitimate strategic asset, and thus seeks to filter it out from the framework.
Why this becomes systemic risk
This dispute touches on deeper issues: integration friction between cryptocurrency and traditional financial frameworks. Once rule conflicts appear, they generate selling pressure—not because of negative market sentiment, but because of systemic design. This makes it far more dangerous than ordinary adjustments, constituting a forced reconfiguration rather than a natural market response.
MSCI will announce its final decision before January 15. Until then, uncertainty will continue to suppress market sentiment, and investors need to closely monitor this policy evolution.