Is there only a 7% chance for Solana to reach a new historical high? Polymarket predictions reveal market pessimism.

In November 2025, prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of Solana reaching a historical high before 2026 has fallen sharply to 7%, in stark contrast to the optimistic sentiment of 60% when the ETF was approved in September. Although the Solana Spot ETF has attracted $350 million in funds since its listing on October 28, the SOL price has retraced 36% from the October high of $240, currently trading around $153. Technical analysis indicates that SOL needs to achieve a 92% rise within six weeks to break through the historical high of $295, with the liquidation wave in the overheated derivation market becoming a major obstacle.

Polymarket prediction market signals big dump probability

The function of the prediction market as a barometer of sentiment is fully demonstrated in this Solana prediction. The affirmative probability of the Polymarket contract “Will SOL break $295 before 2026?” has continued to decline from a peak of 60% on September 26 to just 7% on November 13, indicating that market participants are expressing extremely pessimistic expectations with their real money. This change in probability is highly synchronized with price movements; when SOL hit $240 in early October, the probability remained above 45%, while after falling below $180, the probability quickly dropped below 20%.

The accuracy of prediction markets has a good track record in the cryptocurrency space. In 2024, Polymarket successfully predicted that Bitcoin would not break $100,000 within six months of the halving (the probability remained below 25%), while the prediction accuracy for the approval of the Ethereum ETF at the beginning of 2025 reached 78%. Therefore, the current 7% probability is not a definitive result, but reflects the collective judgment of professional traders. It is worth noting that the total amount staked in this contract has surpassed $1.2 million, and the liquidity depth is sufficient to support price discovery functionality, increasing the reference value of the prediction results.

The Mystery of Solana ETF Fund Inflows and Price Divergence

The performance of the Solana Spot ETF products shows a “good reputation but poor sales” characteristic. Multiple products, led by the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), have attracted a cumulative net inflow of $350 million after their listing, with an average daily trading volume stable at over $40 million, indicating that institutional demand truly exists. However, this inflow of funds has not translated into price support, as SOL has actually fallen 18% from the price on the ETF listing day, creating a phenomenon that contradicts traditional financial theory.

This divergence stems from the uniqueness of the market structure. CryptoQuant data shows that the number of open contracts for Solana futures surged by 85% before and after the ETF approval, with excessive leverage on long positions laying the groundwork for subsequent liquidations. When the price began to pull back from $240, the on-chain liquidation engine triggered forced liquidations that created a negative feedback loop, making it difficult for the gradual inflow of funds from the ETF to offset the immediate sell pressure from derivatives. This dynamic was also observed during the 2024 Bitcoin ETF launch, but at that time, Bitcoin had a larger market cap and lower leverage, resulting in relatively limited impact.

Key Indicators of Solana Market Situation

• Current price: 153 USD (retracement of 36% from the high)
• Historical high: $295 (needs to rise by 92%)
• Polymarket probability: 7% (new high before 2026)
• ETF cumulative inflow: 350 million USD (since October 28)
• Futures open interest: down 45% (result of deleveraging)
• RSI position: 42.45 (neutral to weak)

Key Resistance and Challenges Indicated by SOL Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows a clear descending trend structure, with SOL forming a series of lower highs ($240 → $210 → $190) and lower lows ($180 → $160 → $150). This pattern typically requires a significant catalyst to break. The 200-day moving average is around $165, transitioning from support to resistance, while the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average, forming a death cross. The Stochastic RSI reading of 42.45 is in the neutral zone, neither oversold nor showing strong rebound signals, suggesting a weak balance of bullish and bearish forces at the current price level.

The key resistance zone is concentrated in the $190-$200 range, which is not only a previous support platform but also the average cost area for institutional investors. On-chain data indicates that approximately 12 million SOL (around $1.8 billion) were purchased near this price level, and any rebound will face selling pressure from these investors looking to break even. To achieve a historical high, SOL needs to successively break through the psychological barrier of $200, the previous high resistance at $240, and ultimately challenge the peak of $295. The probability of this path being completed within six weeks is indeed minimal. Fibonacci extension levels show that if a rebound starts, the 0.618 resistance is at $220, which may be a more realistic medium-term target.

Lessons from the Overheated Solana Derivation Market and the Wave of Liquidations

The futures volume bubble chart from CryptoQuant vividly records the technical roots of this round of decline. During October, a dense cluster of red “overheating” bubbles appeared at the $200 price level, indicating excessive concentration of leveraged long positions. When the price pulled back to $220, the first wave of liquidations triggered a chain reaction, ultimately forming a liquidation climax in the $180-$190 range, with a single-day liquidation amount reaching $280 million. This leverage-driven cycle of rises and falls is repeatedly played out in the cryptocurrency market, but Solana amplifies the effect due to its lower market capitalization and higher volatility.

Open interest divergence from price provides early warning signals. In mid-October, when SOL price reached a new high, open interest increased simultaneously, but in early November, when the price fell, open interest declined slowly, indicating that bulls were stubbornly holding rather than actively reducing positions. This structure is destined to require severe price fluctuations to eliminate redundant leverage. Derivative data also shows that the perpetual contract funding rate remained positive during the decline, indicating that bulls are still paying fees to maintain positions, a behavior that typically signals that a bottom has not yet been established.

Solana Ecosystem Fundamentals and Competitive Landscape

Despite weak price performance, the fundamental indicators of the Solana ecosystem remain robust. The number of monthly active addresses stays above 12 million, and the market share of DEX trading volume remains stable at 22%, only trailing behind Ethereum. Developer activity scores ranked third in the Electric Capital report, indicating that long-term building continues. However, the competition from alternative public chains cannot be ignored—Aptos and Sui are rapidly growing in the gaming DApp sector, while Base and Arbitrum hold an advantage in social applications.

The attitudes of institutions are showing divergence. Fidelity has downgraded Solana's rating from “buy” to “neutral” in its latest research report, citing that “ecosystem growth is concentrated on a few applications”; meanwhile, VanEck maintains a “buy” rating, believing that “Solana's moat in high throughput scenarios remains strong.” This divergence is reflected in ETF fund flows, with BSOL maintaining net inflow, but Bitwise's SOL product experiencing a slight outflow. Ecosystem highlights include Jito's staking solution with a TVL surpassing $1.5 billion, as well as the new demand brought by the migration of Render Network, but these positive factors will take time to translate into price momentum.

The Growing Pains of Solana's Expectation Management and Reality Testing

The 7% probability of Solana hitting a new all-time high is less a prediction and more a wake-up call for the market's fervent emotions. As the halo of ETFs fades and leveraged bubbles burst, asset prices must return to the reality check supported by fundamentals. This transition from idealism to realism is crucial for every growth asset—Bitcoin took three years to reach a new high after a big dump of 83% in 2018, and Ethereum took two years to recover after an 80% fall in 2022. For Solana, the current pessimistic expectations are both a challenge and an opportunity, forcing ecosystem builders to focus on substantial innovation rather than price speculation, and to filter out those who truly believe in its technological vision as long-term holders. In the evolutionary history of cryptocurrencies, those projects that can navigate through cyclical troughs ultimately become the pillars of the industry, and Solana stands at such a testing juncture.