Bitcoin is trading lower on Friday, drifting toward the $90,000 level after failing to break through a key resistance zone. The pullback follows weakening institutional demand, as US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded net outflows this week. At the same time, on-chain data suggests the market is transitioning into a phase of selective re-risking and structural rebuilding, with significant supply overhangs still limiting directional momentum.
Institutional Demand Weakens as ETF Outflows Accelerate
Bitcoin began the week with positive momentum but corrected midweek, settling into consolidation around the $90,000 support zone. This price behavior closely tracked institutional flows. According to data from SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $697.25 million on Monday, followed by three consecutive days of outflows totaling $1.12 billion through Thursday. As a result, net weekly flows have turned negative by $431.02 million.
The sustained outflows point to fading institutional appetite in the short term. If this trend continues or intensifies, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure as ETF demand has been a key support pillar during recent market phases.
Corporate Bitcoin Accumulation Remains Strong
Despite softer ETF flows, corporate demand for Bitcoin continues to show resilience. On Monday, Strategy Inc. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced the purchase of 1,287 BTC, raising the company’s total holdings to 673,783 Bitcoin. This move reinforces the firm’s long-term conviction and aggressive accumulation strategy.
In addition, Strategy Inc. increased its US dollar reserves by $62 million to $2.25 billion, strengthening liquidity and preserving flexibility for future Bitcoin acquisitions. This contrast between ETF outflows and corporate accumulation highlights a growing divergence between short-term institutional positioning and long-term balance sheet strategies.
Wall Street Interest Grows With New ETF Filings
Further signaling institutional curiosity, Morgan Stanley confirmed on Wednesday that it has filed S-1 registration statements with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs. If approved, these products could support long-term price appreciation by expanding access, improving liquidity, and reinforcing legitimacy for both assets.
While immediate market reaction remains muted, the filings underline sustained interest from traditional financial institutions seeking regulated exposure to digital assets.
Bitcoin Traders Stay Calm Amid Venezuela Crisis
Geopolitical risk returned to the spotlight after the US conducted a large-scale military operation in Venezuela on Saturday, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Despite the severity of the development, Bitcoin traders have remained notably calm.
CryptoQuant’s Exchange Netflow data, which tracks whether Bitcoin is moving into or out of exchanges, shows no meaningful spike following the news. The lack of increased inflows suggests an absence of panic selling and points to a cautious but composed market response.
Bitcoin Market Shows Growing Resilience to Geopolitical Shocks
Historically, major conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or escalations in the Middle East triggered short-term volatility in Bitcoin. However, sustained exchange inflows have become increasingly rare. Since 2023, Bitcoin markets have demonstrated greater resilience, with initial reactions to geopolitical shocks fading quickly.
The Venezuela situation appears to follow the same pattern. While price sensitivity exists, there is no evidence of widespread fear-driven behavior, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin traders are becoming more selective and less reactive.
Speculation Grows Around Venezuela’s “Shadow” Bitcoin Reserves
QCP Capital noted that geopolitical developments involving Venezuela could act as a near-term catalyst for Bitcoin. Market speculation has resurfaced around claims that Venezuela may control a substantial “shadow” Bitcoin reserve, potentially rivaling the size of Strategy Inc.’s holdings. These claims remain unverified.
If accurate, Venezuela would become the largest sovereign Bitcoin holder, aligning with its increasing reliance on crypto, including the use of USDT in oil transactions since 2024. QCP added that the possibility of seized Bitcoin being absorbed into US strategic reserves reduces the likelihood of forced selling and reinforces Bitcoin’s rising strategic importance at a national level.
Market Structure Shifts Toward Selective Re-Risking
Glassnode’s weekly report highlighted a meaningful shift in Bitcoin’s market structure. The market is moving away from defensive, distribution-driven behavior toward selective re-risking and rebuilding participation.
According to the report, Bitcoin entered the year having cleared a large portion of legacy positioning across spot, futures, and options markets. The deleveraging event in late 2025, combined with year-end derivatives expiries, effectively reset structural constraints and improved signal clarity.
Supply Overhang Limits Immediate Upside
Glassnode analysts noted that Bitcoin now faces significant supply overhang between $92,100 and $117,400. Wallet cohorts that accumulated near cycle highs and held through the drawdown to $80,000 are approaching breakeven levels. As prices rise into this zone, sell-side pressure is likely to increase as these holders attempt to exit without losses.
As a result, any sustained bullish phase will require time and resilience to absorb this overhead supply. Clearing these levels is seen as essential before Bitcoin can establish a stronger upward trend beyond recent distribution zones.
Macroeconomic Data Could Trigger Directional Move
Attention now turns to macroeconomic catalysts, particularly the US Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The data is expected to drive volatility in the US dollar, which often spills over into risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Markets are closely watching employment, unemployment, and wage growth figures, as the Federal Reserve justified its recent rate cuts on signs of labor market softening. Any surprise acceleration in hiring or wages could alter expectations around monetary policy.
Rate Cut Expectations Favor Risk Assets
Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, noted that while some economic indicators have improved, a strong re-acceleration in labor markets would be unexpected. Combined with softer inflation data and anchored inflation expectations, risks to Fed policy appear skewed toward additional easing.
Such an environment would be particularly supportive of higher-beta assets, including technology stocks and large-cap cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Tests Critical Technical Support Levels
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin continues to find support around the 100-week exponential moving average at $86,025, a level that has held since late November. As of this week, BTC is trading near $90,300.
If the 100-week EMA holds, Bitcoin could attempt a move toward the 50-week EMA resistance at $97,631. However, the weekly Relative Strength Index remains at 40, below the neutral level, indicating that bearish control persists despite signs of stabilizing momentum.
Daily Chart Signals Weakening Momentum
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $94,253 earlier in the week. The price declined nearly 3% over the following two days, retesting the $90,000 zone, which previously acted as resistance.
The daily RSI is trending lower toward the neutral 50 level, signaling fading bullish momentum. A daily close below $90,000 could open the door for a deeper correction toward the $85,569 support, corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Key Support Will Determine Bitcoin’s Next Move
If the $90,000 support zone continues to hold, Bitcoin may stabilize and attempt another recovery toward the $94,253 resistance level. However, sustained ETF outflows, supply overhangs, and macro uncertainty suggest that any upside will require patience and strong demand to overcome existing market friction.
