Today's Cryptocurrency News (January 26) | Japan plans to open crypto ETFs in 2028; Cathie Wood increases holdings in crypto stocks
This article summarizes cryptocurrency news as of January 26, 2026, focusing on the latest Bitcoin updates, Ethereum upgrades, Dogecoin trends, real-time cryptocurrency prices, and price forecasts. Major Web3 events today include:
The Federal Reserve will announce its first interest rate decision for 2026 this week, with markets almost unanimously expecting the benchmark rate to remain between 3.5% and 3.75%. Derivatives data shows the probability of rates holding steady has exceeded 96%, with prediction platforms estimating it is nearly 100%. After three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts, this meeting is seen as a critical inflection point for whether the policy pace continues to be accommodative.
For the crypto market, the real focus is not on the decision itself but on Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Whether he hints at resuming rate cuts in the coming months will directly influence the strength of the dollar and risk asset pricing. Morgan Stanley expects the policy statement to retain language of “remaining flexibility,” which is often interpreted as a dovish signal. Once confirmed, this tends to benefit Bitcoin and US stocks. Conversely, if Powell emphasizes inflation risks and suppresses rate cut expectations, a stronger dollar could weigh on Bitcoin.
There are also disagreements within the Federal Open Market Committee. Stephen Miran, nominated by Trump, is expected to oppose larger easing measures. The more such voices there are, the easier it becomes for markets to pre-price subsequent easing, pushing up high-risk assets including Bitcoin.
Macro variables are equally complex. The Trump administration proposed buying about $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates and restrict large institutions from purchasing single-family homes. Some asset managers warn that such measures could stimulate demand and raise home prices, further fueling inflation expectations. ING’s analysis suggests that if Powell defends high rates at the press conference, the dollar could strengthen further, which is unfavorable for dollar-denominated crypto assets.
On the forex front, there are signs that the Fed may coordinate with Japan to intervene in USD/JPY. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a negative correlation with the dollar and a positive correlation with the yen. If the dollar is sold off and the yen strengthens, short-term market volatility could be amplified.
Amidst multiple policy and currency signals, this Fed rate decision and Powell’s wording are likely to be key catalysts in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, completed its first crypto-related stock allocation of 2026 amid a correction in digital assets, investing approximately $21.8 million, targeting the US’s first compliant CEX (COIN), Circle Internet Group, and Bullish. This signals ongoing optimism about infrastructure and stablecoin sectors.
Specifically, ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF together bought 38,854 shares of COIN, with an additional purchase of 3,325 shares by another fund, totaling about $9.4 million. Meanwhile, ARK increased holdings of 129,446 Circle shares (~$9.2 million) and bought 88,533 Bullish shares (~$3.2 million). On that day, COIN closed at $216.95, down 2.77%; Circle dipped 0.03%; Bullish fell 2% to $35.75. ARK also reduced its Meta Platforms holdings by 12,400 shares (~$8.03 million) to free up funds.
In Q4 2025, ARK’s crypto-related stocks were dragged down, with COIN falling more than Bitcoin and Ethereum, as centralized spot trading volume declined 9% month-over-month, becoming a major pressure point for fund performance; Roblox also faced pressure due to lowered profit guidance and Russian sanctions. Nonetheless, ARK’s long-term outlook on Bitcoin and crypto infrastructure remains unchanged. Cathie Wood had established exposure via Grayscale Bitcoin Trust as early as 2015, emphasizing the “infrastructure-level” value of the fixed supply of 21 million coins. ARK projects the crypto market could reach $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin accounting for about 70%, and with increased institutional participation, its price range could reach $950,000 to $1,000,000.
As of now, ARK’s ETFs hold over $1.3 billion in crypto-related assets, including about $393 million in COIN, $205 million in Circle, and $125 million in Bullish; Bitmine Immersion Technologies and Robinhood are also key holdings. As Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holdings continue to rise in 2025, this rebalancing is seen as a forward-looking layout for crypto stocks and stablecoin ecosystems in 2026.
The US Dollar Index DXY has fallen to a four-month low of 97.1, with market expectations of possible USD/JPY intervention by the US and Japan rapidly rising, directly causing a weakening dollar and a rally in safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, gold and silver hit record highs, and Bitcoin is once again viewed as an important hedge against fiat devaluation.
Data shows that after the dollar posted its worst annual performance since 2017 in 2025, it remains under pressure at the start of 2026. This month, DXY has declined about 1.5%, driven by expectations of forex intervention and uncertainty over Fed policy. US President Trump continues to pressure for rate cuts, but markets are not convinced of a short-term policy shift, leading funds to pre-adjust dollar exposure.
Several macro analysts note that DXY is at a critical technical breakdown zone. Rashad Hajiyev believes that the upcoming Fed meeting could trigger a new wave of dollar decline, potentially approaching the 85 level. Ted Pillos also points out that the DXY chart has formed a classic descending triangle, indicating ongoing selling pressure.
The weakening dollar’s impact on Bitcoin is rapidly intensifying. Historical data shows a long-term negative correlation between Bitcoin and DXY; when the dollar depreciates and global liquidity improves, funds tend to flow into risk and scarce assets including Bitcoin. Additionally, the current correlation between Bitcoin and the yen is near historical highs; if the yen is pushed higher, arbitrage flows could indirectly influence the crypto market.
Analyst Donnie further notes that if DXY breaks below 96.2, macro funds are likely to shift significantly toward risk assets between April and May 2026. He believes Bitcoin has yet to fully reflect the real impact of global currency devaluation. As the dollar continues to decline, crypto assets could become the primary beneficiaries of re-pricing.
Against the backdrop of weakening dollar credit and intensified policy battles, Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a speculative tool to a macro hedge asset. In the coming weeks, DXY’s trend is likely to be a key variable in determining the 2026 crypto market direction.
Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD has officially surpassed a market cap of $1 billion, confirmed by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. This milestone makes RLUSD one of the fastest-growing regulated stablecoins globally and demonstrates high institutional recognition of its compliance and transparency. In the increasingly competitive stablecoin landscape, RLUSD is rapidly establishing itself among the core global stablecoins.
More importantly, regulatory progress in the UAE has opened a key channel for RLUSD. Financial regulators in Abu Dhabi and Dubai have issued licenses for institutional use of RLUSD, and the Dubai International Financial Centre has approved its compliant circulation. This means RLUSD can be used by over 7,000 licensed enterprises, including banks, fintechs, and payment providers, significantly enhancing Ripple’s influence as a global financial hub in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, major global crypto lending and liquidity platforms have incorporated RLUSD into their high-quality collateral and margin systems, owing to its clear regulatory status, transparent reserve mechanism, and stable fiat peg. This development improves capital efficiency in decentralized finance and institutional digital asset markets, while subtly squeezing out high-risk stablecoins.
RLUSD’s expansion has also driven real-world applications on the XRP Ledger. In 2025, tokenized assets on XRPL grew over 2000% year-over-year, covering bonds, funds, and cross-border payment channels, transforming the network into a financial-grade settlement layer rather than just a transfer network. This trend further strengthens XRP’s long-term value in cross-border clearing and digital asset infrastructure.
Strategically, Ripple is clearly shifting away from short-term speculation toward building a blockchain financial system accepted by regulators and large financial institutions. RLUSD’s rise is not just a market cap breakthrough but a step toward upgrading stablecoins from crypto tools to part of the global financial infrastructure. As institutions in the Middle East, Europe, and emerging markets gradually adopt, RLUSD could become a key driver of stablecoin and blockchain application scaling in 2026.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) held in Davos, Switzerland, has become an important indicator for the global crypto market. Recent statements from political and financial leaders show that the digital asset landscape in 2026 is undergoing profound change, with cryptocurrencies no longer on the fringe but integrated into the core agenda of global power and capital.
First, the “Trump effect” continues to ferment. US President Trump publicly stated in Davos that he will work to ensure the US remains the “world’s crypto capital.” This statement is seen by markets as a strong endorsement of digital assets. However, due to increasing uncertainty over US diplomacy and trade policies, global funds have recently shifted to safe assets, with Bitcoin and other high-risk assets under pressure, and short-term volatility intensifying. This again demonstrates the deepening link between crypto markets and macro-political environments.
Second, industry insiders remain highly optimistic about 2026. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said during the forum that the crypto market could hit new all-time highs within the next year. The key reason is the Biden administration’s full support for the crypto industry, from stablecoin legislation to executive orders and the appointment of crypto-friendly officials, creating unprecedented policy space. This environment is prompting institutional investors to reassess Ethereum, Bitcoin, and stablecoins’ strategic roles in the global financial system.
Third, traditional finance is making deep inroads. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that migrating the financial system onto blockchain is an irreversible trend, reducing costs, increasing transparency, and expanding financial services. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti also said that blockchain will become the future infrastructure of traditional banking. The push for on-chain real-world asset tokenization, securities digitization, and settlement is accelerating. Grayscale predicts that tokenized markets could reach $35 trillion by 2030, offering long-term growth potential for the crypto economy.
Overall, the WEF sends a clear signal: more favorable policies, increased Wall Street capital, and mature blockchain infrastructure are reshaping the long-term trend of the global crypto market. For investors watching Bitcoin prices, Ethereum ecosystem, and stablecoin development, 2026 may mark a new cycle of structural growth.
A massive Ethereum whale transfer after nearly nine years of dormancy has attracted high attention on-chain. Blockchain data shows that an early Ethereum address recently transferred 50,000 ETH to a market-related address, valued at approximately $145 million at current prices. Since this wallet belongs to an early holder from before 2017, such activity is often seen as a market-moving event signaling potential price or sentiment shifts.
This address first withdrew 135,000 ETH from a CEX when ETH was around $90, and has held it through multiple bull and bear cycles. Despite the large transfer, the wallet still retains about 85,000 ETH, with a market value close to $244 million, indicating more of a position adjustment than a full exit. For investors familiar with “long-term ETH holder behavior,” such partial transfers often imply portfolio rebalancing, risk management, or liquidity preparations.
Ethereum has grown from an experimental blockchain into the core infrastructure for DeFi, NFTs, and smart contracts over the past nine years. This is why early whales continue to hold large amounts. Historical experience shows that activation of dormant wallets does not necessarily mean selling pressure; some transfers relate to custody changes, security upgrades, or strategic reallocation.
Current network activity and fundamentals remain robust, with increasing Layer-2 adoption, institutional participation, and on-chain usage supporting ETH’s long-term value. Therefore, a single whale’s activity should not be overinterpreted as a decisive market signal.
For investors tracking “Ethereum whale movements” and “ETH on-chain flows,” such events are more emotional amplifiers. The real focus remains on Ethereum’s technological evolution, user growth, and macro capital environment. Long-term believers holding substantial ETH continue to signal confidence in Ethereum’s future prospects.
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s realized losses have reached $4.5 billion, the highest in three years.
The last time this occurred, Bitcoin experienced a roughly one-year correction period, with the price at around $28,000.
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced that licensed firms, authorized virtual asset service providers, and related entities (collectively “licensed institutions”) must transition to the new Suspicious Transaction Reporting Platform developed by the Joint Financial Intelligence Group by February 2, 2026. This platform replaces the current system to enhance automation and analysis capabilities, strengthening the efficiency of suspicious transaction reporting and financial intelligence dissemination. From February 2, 2026, STREAMS 2 will be the sole channel for submitting suspicious transaction reports, which can be filed via XML, designated PDF, or online forms.
Ethereum’s price has maintained a strong structural trend into early 2026, with on-chain activity and long-term technical patterns improving in tandem. Market expectations for ETH to break through $4,800 are rising sharply. Many analysts believe that the current consolidation phase is more about building momentum for the next rally rather than a trend reversal.
From a long-term technical perspective, Trader Tardigrade notes that ETH remains in a solid upward channel on the monthly chart, with prices steadily rising along the trendline, indicating ongoing institutional and long-term capital inflows. Historically, such arc-shaped accumulation patterns often precede large-scale upward moves rather than top-distribution phases. This supports the “Ethereum price forecast” of challenging previous highs and possibly reaching $4,800.
Fundamentally, CyrilXBT emphasizes that Ethereum’s network growth is accelerating significantly. On-chain transaction volume has reached multi-year highs, reflecting sustained demand from DeFi, NFT, and RWA applications for blockchain space. This activity-driven engagement, unlike speculative surges, is more conducive to forming stable value anchors. Rising transaction volume also means higher fee income and network utility, providing medium- to long-term support for ETH prices. This is a key logic for investors analyzing “Ethereum network growth and price impact.”
In the short term, EliZ warns that ETH around $3,404 still faces strong selling pressure, with multiple attempts to break higher failing, leading to a consolidation pattern. However, dips remain above key demand zones, indicating no panic selling. As long as this zone holds, the medium-term structure remains bullish, and a breakout above resistance could accelerate the rally.
From trend structure, on-chain data, and market sentiment, Ethereum is in a preparatory phase for higher targets. In the 2026 crypto cycle, whether ETH can break previous highs and challenge $4,800 is becoming a core theme in “Ethereum price analysis” and “ETH future price forecasts.”
According to Aastocks, China Taiping Insurance (Hong Kong) has established a strategic partnership with Hivemind Capital to create a real-world asset (RWA) tokenization fund. The initial target size of the fund platform is set at $500 million, subject to market conditions, institutional and other non-retail qualified investor demand, and regulatory approval. Both companies aim to combine on-chain investment infrastructure with established asset management practices to offer transparent, compliant, and institutional-grade tokenized investment products.
Decentralized finance protocol Aperture Finance confirmed that its V3 and V4 smart contracts were severely compromised in a security attack. Attackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to transfer user assets across multiple blockchains, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, and Base. On-chain tracking shows approximately $17 million in losses, not via flash loans but through abuse of user-granted access permissions.
Unlike traditional liquidity pools being drained, this attack targeted wallet authorization logic. Once users approved contract permissions in the past, attackers could directly mobilize these assets even without current transactions, if vulnerabilities existed. After detecting anomalies, Aperture Finance shut down key front-end functions to prevent new authorizations and attempted to halt further fund outflows.
Preliminary technical analysis indicates that affected contracts had flaws in input validation and external calls, allowing attackers to trigger arbitrary operations and bypass security checks to transfer authorized wallet funds. Security firms like Blockaid and TenArmor issued risk alerts on related addresses, with on-chain records showing ongoing fund inflows into flagged wallets.
Aperture Finance’s team issued an emergency notice on X, stating they are collaborating with external security partners to investigate the root cause and will publish a full post-incident report once confirmed. Some community users have called for compensation and recovery plans, but the team’s immediate priority remains risk control and asset protection.
They also urged all users who interacted with the affected contracts at address 0xD83d960deBEC397fB149b51F8F37DD3B5CFA8913 to revoke their permissions immediately. Users can manage authorizations via on-chain tools; until the issue is fully resolved, no new interactions should be made with these contracts. This incident underscores that authorization management is a critical risk point alongside asset security in DeFi.
The cryptocurrency market is showing clear signs of tension. Analyst Crypto Rover issued a strong warning about Bitcoin’s price trend. He posted a technical chart showing BTC breaking below a long-term ascending channel, accompanied by highly emotional language, stating the market is entering a dangerous phase. This quickly spread among traders, causing noticeable short-term volatility.
Technically, Bitcoin has broken below the ascending trend channel maintained for months and lost the $87,000 support level. Such structural breakdowns are often seen as significant trend weakening signals, especially with high leverage, potentially triggering more passive selling. Some traders are already shifting focus to lower support zones to prevent further accelerated declines.
Beyond technical weakness, macroeconomic factors are also exerting pressure. Global geopolitical risks remain elevated, and some economic data reinforce concerns over slowing growth. In this environment, gold has surged past $5,000 per ounce, indicating capital is flowing into safe assets, while risk assets face selling pressure. Historically, during similar cycles, Bitcoin has struggled to remain immune.
Historical data shows that such breakdowns of ascending channels are not unprecedented. During the 2021 and 2025 bull markets, Bitcoin experienced 10-20% rapid corrections under similar patterns before stabilizing and rebounding. This suggests that short-term volatility does not necessarily mean a long-term trend reversal, but it does impact trading rhythm.
Key support levels are now around $86,500. If bulls can re-establish defenses here, BTC may enter a consolidation phase; if broken, deeper corrections could follow. For short-term traders, managing positions and risk exposure is more important than blindly betting on direction.
The crypto market is experiencing a new wave of capital rotation. According to Lookonchain on-chain data, after PENGUIN’s price surged significantly, many early holders began taking profits in batches and reallocating realized gains into GHOST, a new emerging token. Multiple wallets show a consistent pattern: distributing PENGUIN at high levels and quickly flowing into GHOST, reflecting disciplined trading rather than panic selling.
Data indicates these wallets accumulated during low liquidity phases of PENGUIN and gradually cashed out as the price accelerated. This aligns with common trend-following strategies in crypto—locking in profits after momentum releases and seeking new explosive opportunities. The selling pressure on PENGUIN is mainly profit-taking, not market confidence collapse, keeping the overall structure healthy.
Meanwhile, GHOST is emerging as the biggest beneficiary of this rotation. On-chain records show increasing new wallets, transfer activity, and net inflows into GHOST, indicating ongoing capital entry rather than internal churn. Compared to PENGUIN, which has already surged substantially, GHOST’s valuation remains relatively early-stage, offering more attractive risk-reward for short-term and swing traders.
From a market logic perspective, this shift from PENGUIN to GHOST is common. Crypto funds often migrate between hot assets to sustain overall profit curves. PENGUIN, after its rally, enters consolidation, while GHOST takes over as the new sentiment vehicle. This is typical crypto market rhythm.
Traders should monitor GHOST’s wallet concentration and fund retention. If large holders continue to lock positions rather than quickly sell, the rotation may still be ongoing. Conversely, rapid profit realization could lead to volatility. Watching PENGUIN’s subsequent performance is also important; if it stabilizes during consolidation, some funds may re-enter, forming a second wave.
Overall, this PENGUIN-to-GHOST rotation demonstrates the crypto market’s high sensitivity and momentum chasing. Understanding on-chain flows offers better insight into next opportunities than price alone.
US government shutdown risks have sharply increased this week, with forecasts showing a ~78% chance of a shutdown before January 31, up from 10% three days ago. As Congress stalls over DHS funding, risk sentiment spreads rapidly, with crypto fear and greed index falling into “extreme fear,” and Bitcoin and mainstream digital assets experiencing heightened volatility.
This uncertainty stems from partisan deadlock over immigration enforcement and related budgets. Senate Democrat leader Chuck Schumer said he would not support the current temporary funding bill, citing lack of constraints on ICE powers. DHS funding remains unresolved, meaning that if the deadline passes, federal operations could be further disrupted. NoLimit notes that if data releases are interrupted, CPI and employment reports could be delayed, impacting Fed decisions and market risk assessments.
Safe-haven assets have responded strongly. Gold has broken above $5,000 per ounce, and silver has crossed $100, signaling capital flowing into traditional safe assets. Historical experience shows that during the 43-day government shutdown in 2025, precious metals outperformed risk assets significantly, while Bitcoin retreated about 20%, highlighting its sensitivity to liquidity and macro data.
Analyst Justin Wu believes the shutdown not only delays wages and contracts but also freezes parts of the financial system, suppressing risk appetite. If deadlock persists, GDP could be dragged down by 0.2% weekly, and repo markets and money funds may suffer. In such an environment, crypto markets are more prone to short-term emotional shocks and less likely to establish stable buying.
While Congress still has room to pass new appropriations or temporary measures to avoid shutdown, traders have already priced in a high probability as January 31 approaches. For investors, monitoring US fiscal and political developments will be key variables in assessing Bitcoin and crypto trends.
Japan is accelerating its crypto financial regulation reforms. According to Nikkei, Japan’s Financial Services Agency plans to amend the Investment Trust Law’s implementation details by 2028, including cryptocurrencies within the scope of “specified assets” eligible for ETFs. Once approved by the Tokyo Stock Exchange, investors will be able to buy and sell crypto ETFs through regular securities accounts, structured similarly to gold and real estate ETFs.
Before the regulatory framework is officially implemented, Nomura Asset Management and SBI Global Asset Management have begun developing related products. Industry estimates suggest Japan’s future crypto ETF market could reach about ¥1 trillion (~$67 billion). While this is still smaller than the US’s over $120 billion Bitcoin ETF market, it represents a significant incremental opportunity for Japanese capital markets.
Tax policy adjustments are seen as the real “trigger.” The FSA plans to submit legislation to Congress in 2026 to reclassify crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, reducing the maximum personal crypto gains tax rate from 55% to 20%, aligning with stocks and funds. For years, high taxes have suppressed retail and high-net-worth investor activity in Japan; this change could unlock substantial latent capital.
On investor protection, the FSA requires ETF custodial banks to implement stricter security measures in response to the 2024 DMM Bitcoin theft. Asset managers must also strengthen risk disclosures and operational controls before product launches.
Looking across Asia, Japan’s move will intensify regional competition. Hong Kong has opened multiple Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs to retail investors; Korea’s ruling party is pushing the “Digital Asset Basic Law”; Taiwan allows local funds to invest in overseas crypto ETFs; Singapore remains cautious. As Japan clarifies timelines, the Asian crypto investment landscape is being reshaped.
Related Articles
Data: If BTC breaks through $72,308, the total liquidation strength of mainstream CEX short positions will reach $1.117 billion.
Yesterday, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 417 BTC, and the Ethereum ETF experienced a net inflow of 10,536 ETH.