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On October 3rd, the U.S. government shutdown entered its third day, and Bitcoin continued its strong upward momentum, briefly approaching its all-time high. During the day, Bitcoin rose approximately 2%, reaching a peak of $123,894.99, just about 1% away from the historical record of $124,000 set in mid-August this year, with a cumulative increase of as much as 12% for the week.
The core driving force behind this increase comes from the market's risk aversion sentiment triggered by the U.S. government shutdown. After Congress failed to reach an agreement on the federal budget, leading to the government shutdown, investors have turned to Bitcoin, a decentralized asset, in search of a safe haven. Standard Chartered Bank strategist Jeff Kendrick pointed out that, unlike the government shutdown at the end of 2018 during Trump's administration, this year's Bitcoin trend is highly correlated with "U.S. government risk," and its price shows a significant relationship with the yield premium of U.S. Treasury bonds.
At the same time, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further fueled the upward trend. Wall Street analysts believe that if the government shutdown stalemate continues, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to shift to an accommodative monetary policy in October, and the liquidity easing expectations are favorable for risk assets. Additionally, the continued inflow of institutional funds after the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF—such products have cumulatively held over 1.29 million BTC, accounting for about 6% of the total supply—provides solid support for Bitcoin.
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