Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Summary for November 10, 2025 (Friday)

1. Core Viewpoint

The overall market remains strongly bearish and confirmed. This rebound is not driven by any policy factors but is a purely technical retracement following a prior unilateral rally (market law of cycles of rise and fall). Bitcoin and Ethereum are primarily operated with a "shorting high" strategy, relying on key resistance levels to establish short positions and avoiding chasing highs.

2. In-Depth Technical Analysis (K-line perspective)

Bitcoin

1. Validation of previous long logic: During Saturday’s consolidation, long positions were established at 1026, based on synchronized bottom-formation patterns on the hourly and half-hour charts (short-term moving averages turning upward, volume gradually increasing). The price tested the 10,000 level twice without breaking, forming a double bottom structure, indicating high bottom robustness. Without any sudden negative news, the probability of decline is very low, confirming the long position logic.

2. Current technical signals (bearish confirmation):

- Short-term trend: Over the past 3-4 trading days, a pattern of “high-level oscillation downward” has emerged. The price shows a doji candlestick at the end of the rebound (signaling increased bullish-bearish divergence), with volume gradually shrinking, indicating exhaustion of rebound momentum and market dominance shifting to bears.

- 4-hour chart: After touching previous rebound resistance levels, a bearish candle with a long upper shadow appeared, forming a “resistance zone rejection” pattern, confirming effective suppression in this area and a strong need for short-term correction.

- Weekly chart: The price remains under strong resistance at 11000, repeatedly failing to break higher and oscillating downward. The MACD indicator shows the fast and slow lines are still far apart, with no signs of convergence or bullish crossover. The weekly trend remains bearish, with a clear overall negative tone.

3. Key technical levels: Upper resistance at 10600 (near previous high), 10640 (recent oscillation upper boundary); lower support at 10000 (double bottom neckline, validated multiple times).

Ethereum

1. 4-hour chart pattern: Price is in a “post-rebound oscillation with pressure resonance,” with multiple resistance levels—3730 (previous high), 3707 (short-term moving average), 3650 (consolidation zone). The 3650 level has been tested 2-4 times without breaking, forming a strong resistance pattern with repeated touches failing, indicating concentrated selling pressure in this zone.

2. Volume-price coordination: During the rebound, volume gradually declined, and a “rising price with shrinking volume” divergence appeared near resistance, further confirming rebound weakness and the readiness for a bearish entry.

3. Key technical levels: Resistance at 3730, 3707, 3650 (strong resistance); support at 3505 (recent consolidation lower boundary, coinciding with short-term moving averages, with relatively strong support).

3. Trading Strategies (Primarily Shorting)

1. Bitcoin: Focus on shorting at resistance levels after rebounds. Enter light short positions near 10600; if price continues upward to 10640 (monitoring the speed of rise—rapid surge indicates faster momentum decay), add to short positions with a stop-loss above 10640 (to avoid extreme spike risks).

2. Ethereum: No need to wait excessively for rebounds; consider shorting directly near the strong resistance at 3650. If the price rebounds to 3707 or 3730, add positions in batches, with stop-loss set above 3730.

3. Risk Reminder: Investors who previously blindly bet on breaking below 10000 have been largely liquidated or forced to hold. With no policy support, do not chase longs. Adhere strictly to the core principle of “short at high resistance levels” to avoid falling into long traps.

4. Positioning

Bitcoin: Short at 106000-106500, targeting 105000-104500-104000

Ethereum: Short at 3630-3650, targeting 3600-3550-3500