#美联储降息 Market Observation Notes for December 11

The recent market pace has been very fast. Greed and panic should both be put aside; following the rhythm and maintaining a stable mindset is the foundation of making money—when your mind is steady, your hands won’t shake.

Last night, the Federal Reserve announced a new round of interest rate decisions, lowering rates by 25 basis points as expected. However, the signals behind this rate cut are a bit complicated: on one hand, the rate cut is releasing liquidity; on the other hand, concerns remain about the employment market and inflation data, with a special emphasis that the impact of tariffs on inflation is only temporary. Trump was not very satisfied with this magnitude, feeling the cut could have been sharper. As a result, the market was not as hawkish as expected, the US dollar index weakened, and gold received support.

Gold's movement was very textbook—before the data was released, it oscillated between 4190 and 4205, then after the announcement, it surged directly to around 4219, then quickly dropped to 4181, followed by repeated lifts, reaching a high of 4238 before pulling back and stabilizing around 4220. In the early session, it rose again close to 4245. The 4220 level is quite crucial; yesterday, long positions around 4180 performed well.

On the crude oil side, the easing expectations from the rate cut provided some support, coupled with geopolitical factors (such as the U.S. detaining a Venezuelan oil tanker), creating some speculative room. But to be honest, the supply and demand issues have not fundamentally improved. From a technical perspective, the daily chart still shows narrow oscillations at low levels, but the short-term four-hour moving averages are beginning to show signs of rising, and the K-line is slowly climbing. Today’s main strategy remains to go long on dips.

Operational ideas:
For gold, consider going long around 4220-4225, targeting 4250-4280. If it cannot stabilize, consider adding some light short positions to test.
For crude oil, buy near 58.3-58.4, with targets around 59.4-59.5. If stabilization fails, a light short position can also be considered.

Risk reminder: The above is only market observation and analysis. Investment involves risks; specific operations should still depend on actual trading performance.