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The market had already priced in the Fed's rate cut expectations, and the actual implementation has instead become a bearish signal. Currently, funds are focusing on the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19. If they change their stance, yen carry trades may be collectively closed, which could significantly impact liquidity. In the short term, this expectation still exerts some pressure on BTC.

Over the weekend, the market mostly moved within a narrow range. The 4-hour chart shows some strength, but the moving averages are still overhead, and a direction is about to be decided. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands have tightened, with the 89880 level quickly reclaimed, providing relatively clear support. The KDJ indicator is near 30, indicating a technical basis for a rebound, with consecutive bullish candles showing that the bulls still hold the upper hand.

If support holds, the strategy is to continue looking for long opportunities at lower levels:

For BTC, consider going long in the 90000 to 89500 range, with attention to resistance at 92500.
For ETH, build positions between 3100 and 3170, targeting 3200.
BTC2.11%
ETH0.42%
ICNT-5.75%
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SelfRuggervip
· 4h ago
Is the Bank of Japan really about to change its stance? It feels like this carry trade might end up bleeding.
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RumbleValidatorvip
· 12-15 03:11
The Bank of Japan is the real wildcard. We haven't seen many instances of carry trade unwinding, and when that happens, liquidity withdrawal will be fierce. That's the point we need to watch out for.
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ConsensusBotvip
· 12-15 02:51
If the Bank of Japan really takes action, the yen carry trade will be closed instantly, and liquidity will evaporate directly. That's when BTC will truly come under pressure. If the support holds steady at 89,500, it can be pursued; at 92,500, it's definitely worth a try. Let's see if ETH has a chance at 3,200 in this wave.
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ChainSauceMastervip
· 12-15 02:44
The Bank of Japan is the real variable; when that time comes, a liquidity pullback is expected to be quite uncomfortable. I've already been lurking around the 90,000 mark, just waiting to see if the support is strong enough. I'm a bit tempted by the ETH position around 3100, but I need to watch a bit more.
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GasFeeCryervip
· 12-15 02:44
The Bank of Japan is really the ultimate weapon; if this liquidity extraction goes wrong, we might see another sharp decline.
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