This Friday coincides with the triple witching day, which only happens four times a year. Options and futures expire simultaneously, leading to increased trading volume and amplified market volatility, which can easily sway investor sentiment.

What we really need to be cautious about is on the macro front. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. During the recent decline, the market was already digesting the possibility of Japan raising interest rates. At that time, not only did Bitcoin fall, but the Nikkei Index also plummeted overnight, as everyone was worried about one thing—whether yen carry trades would be forcibly liquidated, repeating the domino effect seen in July and August last year.

Japan has maintained near-zero interest rates for years, making the yen the cheapest borrowing tool globally. The common strategy involves borrowing yen, converting to USD, and investing in US stocks and tech stocks, even high-volatility cryptocurrencies—this is the core logic of yen carry trades.

The key point is that this game relies on one premise: the yen must stay weak. If the yen starts to appreciate, the cost of borrowing increases, and those attractive leveraged positions suddenly become burdens, forcing funds to liquidate and repay debts. The problem is, they often sell off high-risk assets in their accounts rather than the yen itself.

In the coming days, two forces will clash: one is the technical impact of the triple witching day, and the other is the potential threat to global risk assets from the Bank of Japan's policy changes. With many short-term uncertainties, the market is prone to oscillations. It’s important to keep positions controlled and risk management in place.