12.18 BTC Evening Market Analysis

Core conclusion: Before the CPI release, the market is oscillating and slightly bearish, focusing on the 85,000-88,500 range. After the data is released, operate accordingly; do not chase trades without signals.

1. Logical support

1. Technical: Daily chart shows a bearish descending three-method pattern, 4-hour moving averages are under pressure, MACD indicates continued bearish momentum.
2. Capital: 24-hour liquidation reached $697 million (mainly long positions), ETF support is weak, liquidity is insufficient.
3. Macro: As the US CPI data is released at 21:30, US stocks decline in tandem, and the rebound of the US dollar suppresses the market.

2. Trend characterization

Main trend is oscillating and slightly bearish, with resistance at 88,500-89,300 and support at 85,000; positive CPI data could break resistance and shift to upward oscillation, negative data could break support and push down to 83,000-84,000.

3. Practical targets

1. Short positions: Build gradually at 87,800-88,500, target 85,500-85,000.
2. Long positions: Light entry at 85,000-85,500, target 87,000-87,500.
3. Reminder: Do not operate within 15 minutes after CPI release; wait for stabilization before following up.