#比特币与黄金战争 Last night, the global financial markets were in constant turmoil. Gold broke through $4,550 per ounce, and silver's rally was even more fierce, with an increase of over 160% this year. Behind this wave of market movement are actually two main reasons: one is the market’s obsession with Fed rate cuts, and the other is the safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions.

But there is a contradictory point here. Employment data is actually quite good—the initial unemployment claims dropped to 214,000 (a three-year low), and the labor market remains hot. As soon as this data was released, the market immediately responded: the probability of no rate cuts before March next year exceeds 50%. In other words, the economy is still quite resilient.

The issue is, Trump and his advisory team (rumored to include potential future Fed chairs) repeatedly emphasize that "rate cuts are already lagging." This logic is quite realistic—cutting rates can ease public resentment over high interest rates and stimulate the real estate market, which is beneficial for election prospects. The market is well aware of this, so funds are pouring into gold and cryptocurrencies, preemptively positioning for a "loose monetary policy."

Looking ahead, the consensus is that the Fed may only cut rates twice next year. But what if a more "cooperative" chairperson takes over? The easing cycle could become deeper and longer. For gold and crypto assets, this is undoubtedly a positive signal.

The current question is: if policy truly intervenes this way, how will the market react? It’s worth continuing to watch.