The recent rhythm of the cryptocurrency market is quite interesting—policy tailwinds and institutional actions are stacking up, but risks are also quietly building.

From a macro perspective, there are indeed many positive signals. The Trump administration's friendly attitude toward crypto assets and the proactive promotion of stablecoin regulation have given the market a strong boost. However, it is important to be clear that in a low-liquidity environment, leverage can be extremely destructive—last December's $500 million daily liquidation wave was a stark reminder of how fierce short-term volatility can be.

On the data front, on January 2nd, the crypto index was at 1413.01, with a single-day increase of 6.71%, and trading volume soared to $7.7 billion, indicating a good combination of volume and price action. But Polymarket's data is also quite interesting: although 70% of traders are optimistic about BTC hitting $95,000, the CME gap and the risk of high-level selling pressure have not dissipated, and the overall sentiment remains "cautiously optimistic."

Specifically regarding mainstream coins, the market is polarized but not chaotic. BTC shows strong rebound momentum, with some large players even using 40x leverage long positions. Tether holdings and institutional accumulation are supporting the market—one leading asset management firm increased its Bitcoin holdings by 88.56% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, and the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder increased holdings to 5%. These all indicate that institutions are actively accumulating, and the long-term logic remains solid. The risk of gap filling in the short term should be watched, but the long-term upward trend has not been broken.

ETH's performance is more stable, holding the $3100 level, with institutional and reserve holdings accounting for 10.74%, and a clear increase in concentration of holdings—usually a sign of strength.