2026-01-05 01:21:28

The Reserve Bank of Australia's attitude has changed so quickly. Just recently cutting interest rates, now the market is discussing the possibility of a rate hike as early as February next year.

Data speaks the loudest. October CPI year-over-year surged to 3.8%, the highest in nearly 10 months. Citibank issued a warning: if November data continues to exceed expectations, consecutive rate hikes in February and May are basically a certainty. The problem is, the market is clearly unprepared for this wave of rate hikes, and bond sell-off risks have already soared.

How drastic is the RBA's shift? Last August, they were still cutting rates; by December, the governor directly stated, "Don't expect further cuts." The meeting minutes for the first time mentioned the possibility of "rate hikes," marking a 180-degree policy shift.

What does this mean for ordinary people? Mortgage monthly payments may face upward pressure. In a high-interest-rate environment, consumption and investment demand will be severely suppressed. Major banks' forecasts are already diverging, and market volatility is imminent.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and BNB will definitely feel the impact of these macro expectations in the short term. Once the rate hike cycle begins, risk assets usually come under pressure. What do you think? Do you believe the rate hikes will really follow this pace? Have you adjusted your asset allocation?

BTC-2,4%

ETH-3,67%

BNB-1,98%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BridgeNomad

· 4h ago

ngl the rba's whiplash here is giving major "trust assumptions broken" energy... one day they're cutting, next thing you know it's rate hike szn. that debt selloff risk they're flagging? that's straight up looking like a liquidity fragmentation event waiting to happen tbh.

Reply0

PensionDestroyer

· 01-06 03:50

The central bank's counter-move is brilliant—cutting interest rates and then turning around to raise them. The market's reaction definitely can't keep up. Everyone, your mortgage payments are about to increase. BTC is going to get hit, those who ran early are the ones who profited. With CPI so high, there's no way to cover it up. It feels like Australia is really about to toughen up. Once interest rate hikes start, risk assets will become cannon fodder. I should have already cleared my positions. Cutting interest rates was a lonely move; now it's time for a reverse operation. The market won't be able to adapt to this wave.

View OriginalReply0

TokenUnlocker

· 01-05 01:50

The Reserve Bank of Australia is really playing us. They promised rate cuts, and now they’re about to raise again? Mortgage holders are going to be crying their eyes out. --- CPI has surged to 3.8%, and no one can stop it. In the crypto world, should we really be buying the dip or just avoiding it this time? --- Even Citibank has issued a warning. An 80% chance of rate hikes in February, so BTC better be prepared for a drop. --- Last year was about rate cuts, and this year they’ve turned around and increased them directly. The central bank’s move is quite ruthless. --- With high interest rates, retail investors have even less money to invest, so the crypto market will cool down for a while. --- Mainstream coins are definitely under pressure in the short term. The question is, how long can this rate hike cycle last? --- Asset allocation should have been adjusted long ago. It’s a bit late to realize that now.

View OriginalReply0

BTCRetirementFund

· 01-05 01:41

Here we go again, the central bank's trick of "cut first, then raise" is really playing well. I just want to know, if this wave of CPI truly exceeds 4, how long can the currency in my hands last?

View OriginalReply0

RektRecorder

· 01-05 01:37

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s 180-degree turn is truly astonishing, shifting from rate cuts to rate hikes, changing instantly. Mortgage borrowers are in for a tough time now. I bet 5 BTC that November data will still explode.

View OriginalReply0

FOMOSapien

· 01-05 01:23

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s sudden reversal is too fierce, I’m a bit panicked about my BTC position haha --- Once interest rate hikes are set in stone, these risk assets are really going to take a hit --- Home loan borrowers are probably going to cry, this relentless interest rate hike is never-ending --- Honestly, bonds are already showing sell signals, I’ve felt something was off for a while --- CPI is at 3.8%, and they still want to raise interest rates? That move is really ruthless --- I bet the data in November will continue to exceed expectations, and it will really be a continuous rate hike --- The central bank even cut rates in August, and by December they’ll say don’t even think about it, the reversal speed is incredible --- It’s good enough if BTC can hold up this month, no one likes high risk in a rising interest rate environment --- Looking at Citi’s warning, it feels like the decision has already been made, rate hikes are definitely in February and May --- Ordinary people are repeatedly hit by these policies, asset allocation is simply too late to adjust

View OriginalReply0