2026-01-05 01:24:49

Many people view Bitcoin as a random walk, but that's not quite right. There are clear cyclical patterns at play—underlying supply and demand dynamics, capital rotation, and changes in market structure are all driving the price. Understanding these patterns allows you to grasp the big trends and turning points, so you won't be confused by short-term fluctuations.

The key is to combine technical analysis, on-chain data, and macroeconomic background.

**Halving Cycles Are the Foundation**

Bitcoin undergoes a halving every four years—block rewards are cut in half. This is no small matter; it directly changes the rate of new coin supply and disrupts the original supply-demand balance.

Historical patterns are quite clear: after a halving, the price tends to lag by 12 to 18 months before fully reflecting this change. In other words, the impact of a sudden supply reduction takes time to be realized, while new demand enters the market. For the 2024 halving, the market expects the biggest price impact to appear in 2025, especially in Q4. Why? Because the market needs time to digest the information—a gradual process where buyers and sellers adjust their expectations.

**MVRV Ratio Is a Thermometer**

To gauge where we are in the cycle, the MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) is a useful reference. When the ratio is particularly high (for example, approaching or exceeding 4), it usually indicates a market top; conversely, when the ratio drops below 1, it often signals a bottom accumulation zone.

Mid-2025 data shows this ratio at about 2.6, which is around the historical median level. What does this mean? If the fundamentals remain stable, there’s still potential for a bull market to continue.

BTC-2,4%

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JustHereForMemes

· 13h ago

You've heard this halving cycle theory many times, but indeed some people rely on it to buy the dip and sell the top for huge profits... When MVRV drops below 1, I didn't dare to buy, and now I regret it to death.

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blockBoy

· 14h ago

I accept the logic of the halving cycle, but can MVRV 2.6 really indicate that the bull market continues? It depends on how the Federal Reserve handles things.

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PanicSeller

· 01-05 01:49

The halving cycle theory sounds impressive, but to be honest, I can never quite get the 12-18 month lag time right... Is the 2.6 MVRV really stable? It feels like it could collapse at any moment.

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DuskSurfer

· 01-05 01:44

I have seen through the halving cycle long ago; the key is still waiting for the market to digest, no need to rush. --- MVRV 2.6 at this level indeed has little pressure; it's much more comfortable than during the 4 phase. --- Supply and demand, to put it simply, is about trading time for space; most people just can't wait for those 12 months. --- The position of the thermometer at 2.6 indicates there's still a story to tell; a top isn't coming so quickly. --- People who understand the cycle patterns will always make money; those dominated by short-term fluctuations are constantly buying the dip and selling the top. --- Using the logic from the 2024 halving to Q4 2025, it indeed aligns with historical trends; it all depends on how the funds cooperate. --- When MVRV drops below 1, it means blood has been drained; those who got in early then knew what wealth truly is. --- Market digestion of information takes time; that's why 90% of people are bad at trading—they're impatient and seek quick gains.

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TommyTeacher1

· 01-05 01:42

I agree with the logic of the halving cycle, but is the 12 to 18 months lag really that accurate? It feels like there are always variables every time. It seems that MVRV at 2.6 isn't really high; looking at historical benchmarks, there's still room for growth. Why does it feel like we're talking about bottoming again? The last time it was said this way, I was already trapped, haha. The key still depends on the Federal Reserve's actions. When the macro environment changes, everything can get chaotic. Sometimes, just looking at on-chain data isn't enough. The halving cycle is indeed a hard rule, but the problem is how retail investors can grasp that 12 to 18 months window. I think most people will still be shaken out.

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