2026-01-05 03:26:25

Market Eyes January 2026 Rate Cut Prospects

CME's latest rate cut odds are painting an interesting picture for early 2026. The probability of a rate cut happening by January sits at just 17.2%—a telling sign of where markets are pricing in monetary policy right now.

This data matters for crypto and traditional markets alike. Stock indices (tracked via SPX), Bitcoin positioning, and gold valuations (XAU) tend to react sharply whenever rate expectations shift. Lower odds of near-term cuts could mean tighter conditions persist, which historically affects risk asset appetite.

Keep tabs on this figure—it's one of the cleaner windows into what institutions are actually pricing in for Fed policy. These probabilities shift with economic data, so watch for updates in coming weeks.

BTC0,64%

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TooScaredToSell

· 01-07 13:36

17.2%? That's such a low probability it's frightening. It seems like institutions are all betting that the Federal Reserve's stubbornness will ultimately backfire.

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TopEscapeArtist

· 01-07 03:46

17.2%? This data really slapped hard. I should have seen this coming when I was bullish earlier this year.

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SolidityJester

· 01-05 03:55

17.2%? That's a ridiculous shrinkage; it seems the Federal Reserve hasn't loosened its stance yet.

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GasFeeLady

· 01-05 03:51

ngl 17.2% for jan cuts? that's basically saying "not happening" lol. been watching gwei charts all morning and this tracks—market's in hodl mode, not risk mode. tight conditions = everyone's counting sats instead of swinging. smart move honestly, just wait for that optimal window to actually show up. the fed oracle speaks and we all pretend we didn't see it coming

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ZkSnarker

· 01-05 03:51

17.2% lmao powell really said "patience is a virtue" and the market just... believed him? wild

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ReverseFOMOguy

· 01-05 03:50

There is a 17.2% chance that the market is saying "interest rates still need to stay high," so BTC and stocks need to withstand the pressure during this period.

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GasBandit

· 01-05 03:50

17.2%? This rate cut probability is outrageous; we still have to keep taking the hits.

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GateUser-cff9c776

· 01-05 03:40

17.2%? So that's what the institutions are thinking now. Looks like the story of interest rate cuts will have to be pushed back. Wait, in that case, BTC will have to endure even longer since the beginning of the year. Who would dare to heavily allocate risk assets in a tightening environment? Honestly, rather than fixating on this probability number, it's better to watch how the economic data unfolds—that's the real game-changer.

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WenAirdrop

· 01-05 03:36

17.2%? The Fed is really being stubborn. Looks like there's no hope in the first half of next year.

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