Oil reserves control is becoming a new battleground for global power struggles. As the world's largest untapped oil fields come into focus, traditional energy competition has evolved into a reshuffling of the financial system and trade order.

There are several key points to watch in this shift.

First is the absolute advantage of reserves. Approximately 18% of the world's proven oil reserves are located in a certain region. What does this number mean? It means that if these reserves are integrated into the existing large-scale supply system, they could control nearly half of the world's available oil supply. From a commodity perspective, this is energy; from a power perspective, it is leverage.

Second is the fiscal dependency chain. The government finances of a certain oil-exporting country derive 60% directly from energy revenues. When the supply chain is restructured, this dependency becomes a "pivot"—who controls pricing power can indirectly control the country's economic operations.

One level higher, the linkage between oil prices and the global financial system is no longer a secret. Oil price fluctuations directly reflect: inflation expectations, commodity trading, US dollar liquidity cycles, and international trade financing costs. Changes in energy prices cascade down to stock markets, exchange rate fluctuations, and interest rate expectations—any trader can feel this chain.

The current situation is as follows:

On one hand, some capital entities are unlocking long-sealed resources through technology and investment. This is not just exploration and extraction but preparing for a reorganization of the entire supply chain.

On the other hand, major oil-producing countries are adjusting their capacity strategies—this is market leverage. By increasing or decreasing production, they can directly influence price expectations and, in turn, affect risk pricing in the entire commodity market.

What does this mean?

In the short term, oil price volatility will increase, and geopolitical risk premiums will be re-priced. Traders will face more uncertainty and opportunities for volatility (or risk).

In the medium term, the stability of the global supply chain faces pressure. Manufacturing costs and transportation costs are linked to energy prices. If structural changes occur in this link, the entire supply chain will need to adapt anew.

In a deeper sense, the distribution of power within the energy-money-trade triangle is changing. Historically, whoever controls key energy resources holds sway in the monetary system and has pricing power in international trade. Now, this power structure is being reconstructed.

What does this mean for exchange users?

First, the price volatility of commodities and energy assets will become more intense—whether traditional oil futures or other energy-related assets.

Second, the cycle of US dollar liquidity may undergo structural changes. Energy trade is one of the key supports of the dollar; when this segment is re-priced, dollar liquidity will adjust accordingly.

Third, geopolitical risk premiums will be re-priced more frequently, affecting demand for safe-haven assets and, consequently, the performance of some alternative assets.

By 2026, the global economy is undergoing a silent restructuring of the energy power system. This reorganization will not be completed in a day, but every step is changing the microstructure of global finance. Understanding this change is crucial for predicting the next direction of the market.