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The key discovery is not about how much a particular asset has risen, but about the "decoupling" of correlations among various assets.
On the first day Chinese investors returned to trading, the global markets provided an interesting answer:
Gold opened with a gap up, nearly $90 higher intraday, and it didn’t give back any of those gains throughout the day, climbing steadily upward. Although US stock futures also gapped up, they soon lost momentum and remained stagnant. Oil prices oscillated for a while before decisively turning downward — this isn’t emotional volatility; it’s the market correcting previous logical errors. The US dollar index rose by 0.3%, just enough to reach a level that makes technical and emotional sense. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index recovered above 4,000 points, prompting many to wonder how far this rally can go.
What is the essence of this market movement? It’s not "the world is changing," but rather "gold is for real, while other assets are just playing tai chi."
Gold is the only asset that truly considers weekend risk events. Market strategists generally agree on gold’s outlook — conflict may not escalate, but uncertainty will persist. It’s precisely this outlook that has driven gold into a sustained trend. In contrast, although US stock futures acknowledge risk, they clearly refuse to exaggerate it. The performance of A-shares is even more interesting — despite the yuan weakening, the Shanghai Composite can still perform like this. What does that indicate? It shows that the more chaotic the external world becomes, the more internal certainty and attractiveness stand out. Geopolitical disturbances are external issues; A-shares are following their own "recovery rhythm."
The current market landscape has changed: it’s no longer one major event dragging all assets along, but each asset class reacting according to its own risk layer. This is a truly noteworthy signal of divergence.