The altcoin market is experiencing a "game with no winners." Will there still be a chance for altcoins in 2026? How can we break the deadlock?

The massive number of tokens left over from the 2021-2022 funding bubble are now crashing into a demand-starved market.

The problem is, the mechanism that created this crisis is still in operation.

1️⃣ Low Liquidity Dilemma: A Four-Way Loss Game

Over the past three years, the industry has relied on a deadly pattern: low circulation tokens (circulation rate in single digits% + high FDV).

It seems to maintain the token price, but in reality, it delays collapse—once unlocked, selling pressure is overwhelming.

And more ironically, this mechanism makes everyone think they are gaining advantage, but in fact, everyone loses:

· Exchanges think controlling circulation can protect retail investors, but instead, it invites community backlash and price crashes
· Holders think they can prevent dumps, but they end up with no real price discovery and are betrayed by early supporters
· Projects think they can sustain high valuations, but they erode the entire industry's fundraising capacity
· VCs think they can raise funds with low market cap, but ultimately cut off long-term exit channels

A perfect four-way loss matrix. Everyone is playing a big game, but the rules of the game are unfavorable to all.

2️⃣ Why did both market self-rescue attempts fail?

First attempt: Meme coins
Slogan: "100% circulation, no VCs, completely fair."
Reality: No filtering mechanism → rampant scams → 98% of people get burned.
Winners: only the token issuing team and Pump.fun.

Second attempt: MetaDAO
Took another extreme: token holders in control, KPI unlocking, low initial valuation.
But new problems emerged:

· Excellent founders are reluctant to relinquish control early → "Lemon Market" forms
· Infinite issuance mechanism → difficult to list on mainstream exchanges → liquidity dries up

Both attempts proved: the market can self-regulate, but a balance point has yet to be found.

3️⃣ What kind of rebalancing is needed to break the deadlock?

Exchanges
Should no longer demand arbitrary lock-up extensions, but focus on: predictable release plans + KPI unlocking + accountability mechanisms.

Holders
Should not excessively control operations, but strive for: transparency of information, funds oversight, and value attribution guarantees.

Projects
Stop issuing tokens just for fundraising. Tokens should not be "worse equity."

Venture Capital
Not every project needs a token. The focus should return to the essence: investing in projects truly suitable for token models, and accepting reasonable releases and returns.

4️⃣ Next 12 months: The final wave of supply shock

Remaining projects from the last VC bubble will continue issuing tokens over the next year.
Endure this period:

· By the end of 2026, old projects will either have finished issuing or will have died
· Funding costs remain high, new project supply is limited
· Primary market valuations are gradually becoming rational

Decisions made three years ago have shaped today’s market,
Today’s actions will determine the landscape three years from now.

5️⃣ Long-term threat: Will altcoins turn into a "Lemon Market"?

Dangerous paths:

· Failed projects continue issuing tokens to prolong life
· Successful projects shift to traditional equity
· The token market is left with only "no choice" bad projects

But, I still believe in the value of the token model:

· Growth accelerator: Ethena rapidly gained momentum through token mechanisms
· Loyal community building: Traders in Hyperliquid become ecosystem defenders
· Innovation space in game theory: Collaboration and incentives that equity cannot achieve

6️⃣ Self-correction has already begun

· Stringent standards for new listings on top-tier exchanges
· Innovations like DAO governance, IP ownership structures are being tested
· The market is learning through pain

We are at the bottom of the cycle.
Digesting the bubble, reconstructing rules, screening high-quality projects—
This process takes time, but also seeds the next phase.

Finally

The altcoin market is at a crossroads.
The four-way loss deadlock is not the end, but a structural stalemate that must be broken.
The answer is not in complex design, but in returning to the essence:
Tokens should be tools to enhance the ecosystem, not shortcuts for fundraising.

Looking back three years from now, do we want to leave behind a healthier mechanism or another bubble waiting to burst?

The choice is now in the industry’s hands.

(Rhino Crypto Community: Welcome to share and discuss. Please cite the source when quoting.)#加密市场开年反弹