2026-01-05 21:48:55

Seed round valuations and unicorn success rates—there's a common assumption that higher valuations at the seed stage correlate with better odds of hitting unicorn status. But here's where it gets interesting.

Analyzing top quartile valuations at seed, there's indeed a measurable difference in unicorn likelihood. However, the real eye-opener sits in the data breakdown: when you filter for seed rounds that achieved 50x returns relative to their seed valuation, the percentage holds remarkably steady at roughly 8% across every valuation quartile bucket.

What does this tell us? Starting valuation alone isn't a reliable predictor of exceptional outcomes. Whether you raised at premium or discount valuations in the seed round, your shot at that 50x multiple stays roughly consistent. The outlier returns seem driven by execution, market timing, and product-market fit—not by what price your series A investor assigned.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

FOMOrektGuy

· 01-08 10:57

So, valuation levels are basically useless; what really matters is whether the team can deliver... These numbers are brutally exposing the truth.

View OriginalReply0

NftMetaversePainter

· 01-07 17:15

actually the algorithmic elegance here is what gets me... that 8% stability across all quartiles? it's basically a hash function for venture outcomes. the valuation becomes almost irrelevant—just noise in the signal. execution and market timing are the true blockchain primitives of startup success, ngl. everything else is just aesthetic computation masquerading as due diligence

Reply0

PrivateKeyParanoia

· 01-07 13:18

After all this, it's still about execution capability; valuation levels can't fundamentally change the probability? How truthful does this data need to be to be convincing? Feels like they're just whitewashing those overhyped fundraising projects.

View OriginalReply0

ForumMiningMaster

· 01-06 08:19

Damn, these numbers are a slap in the face. High valuation can't save a trash project at all.

View OriginalReply0

fren.eth

· 01-05 22:18

Ha, how much did this data slap the face of VC valuation models, hilarious --- So basically, it still depends on the team and product; valuation levels are really not that important --- Is an 8% ratio this stable? It actually suggests that luck also plays a significant role --- That's why I prefer those undervalued early projects; they don't need to be constrained by high valuations --- Execution > valuation, this should have been the perspective all along, but unfortunately most people are still obsessed with the concept of valuation

View OriginalReply0

SatoshiLeftOnRead

· 01-05 22:16

Ha, this data is a reality check. Seed valuation is not some magical factor at all. --- I've always said that the probability of hitting a unicorn through bottom-fishing and premium financing is roughly the same. It all depends on the team's strength and luck. --- 50x is only 8%? That indicates valuations can't really be predicted at all. Worrying about whether your financing is expensive or not is just naive. --- Another paper claiming "the starting point doesn't matter, only the end point counts," but it really hits home. --- Market timing > valuation > everything. This logic holds, but in reality, most people can only control one thing: valuation.

View OriginalReply0

EternalMiner

· 01-05 22:15

To be honest, I've seen through the seed round valuation thing a long time ago, it's about betting on people, not numbers. 50x returns stabilized at 8%? That data is a bit crazy, it feels like the big companies' valuation game has completely broken down. Execution > valuation, that's the truth, many people have it backwards. Damn, I've wanted to criticize these fundraising consultants for a long time, they keep touting high valuations as a way to produce unicorns, it's nonsense. Discounted financing can also multiply 50 times? Then those sky-high seed projects I bought earlier are really unlucky investments.

View OriginalReply0

0xSunnyDay

· 01-05 22:11

Wow, this data is really incredible... I always thought high valuation = high probability of takeoff, but the 8% figure sweeps through all tiers? What does that even mean? Valuation is just a facade.

View OriginalReply0

DaoResearcher

· 01-05 22:03

From the data performance, this 8% stability indeed debunks a bunch of funding hypotheses. It is worth noting that — valuation itself is not a signal; execution is.

View OriginalReply0