Looking at the 47% surge of CLO, it indeed attracted many to enter the market. But upon closer inspection of the chart, I noticed some irregularities.

One-hour volume expansion with stagnating price, and trading volume has shrunk by nearly 60%, this feels more like a false rally rather than a genuine breakout. On the surface, it looks aggressive, with a sharp rise, but the underlying data is lying — the 15-minute RSI has already weakened first, forming a divergence with the hourly chart.

This is a pattern I’ve seen many times: the price surges rapidly, but there’s no sustained buying follow-through. In such scenarios, short-term profit-taking becomes inevitable. They are waiting for this environment to dump their holdings because the more it rises sharply, the more people will want to buy the dip later. Is this the start of a real bull market, or just a pulse driven by news stimuli?

The core evidence I look at includes these points: the 1-hour MACD histogram has already turned negative, signaling a death cross; importantly, the volume cannot keep up with this rally, indicating the foundation isn’t solid. If it can hold steady above 0.45 with volume, then my bearish thesis will be invalidated.

So my current stance is **wait and see**. The risk for both bulls and bears at this level is asymmetric; both sides could get trapped. If I want to short, I need to see clear signs of weakening rebounds; if I want to go long, I need confirmation of volume and price rising together. Instead of gambling on this move, I prefer to wait for a clearer direction to emerge.

Risks are always there, but understanding them clearly before acting is always better than rushing in.