The story of Bitcoin has changed in these years. From a purely speculative asset to being gradually incorporated into national strategic levels, the entire narrative framework is being reshaped.



**Policy Shift: From Individual Countries to Major Power Recognition**

In March 2025, the Trump administration officially established the "National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." This move is quite significant—it elevates BTC from a wild-growth asset class to a strategic arena in national financial games. This is not just a change in a document; more deeply, it reflects the strategic choices of global major powers in the reconfiguration of the financial landscape.

**Domino Effect**

Can other countries sit idly by as the US takes this step? Game theory makes it clear—those who do not follow will fall behind in potential financial competition. Brazil and Kyrgyzstan have already taken action. As long as the supply cap of Bitcoin remains, this kind of national-level incremental purchase demand will persist, serving as a long-term support base for prices.

**Corporate Following: From Exception to Norm**

When MicroStrategy first included Bitcoin in its financial statements, it was considered newsworthy. But by November 2025, over 100 listed companies held crypto assets, with 50 of them holding more than 1 million coins. What are these companies playing at? Continuously leveraging low-cost financing channels to buy the dip, treating crypto assets as a standard part of their asset allocation. This "arbitrage model" is becoming institutionalized.

**The Cycle Issue**

Historically, peaks have been seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. According to the four-year cycle, 2026 should theoretically enter a cold winter. But the current question is—does this cycle still work? The scale of new demand sides (states, listed companies, institutions) may have already broken the previous cycle pattern.
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BlockchainArchaeologistvip
· 01-08 22:49
Really, the national-level buy-in has entered the market, and the game rules have completely changed. The cycle of relying on retail investors for speculation may truly be outdated. However, if the four-year cycle is really broken, it would require continuous demand from the supply side. What if policies suddenly change one day? MicroStrategy and those companies holding so many coins—how will they exit when the time comes? Institutional arbitrage sounds appealing, but the risks are also deeply hidden.
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just_another_fishvip
· 01-08 06:14
Breaking the four-year cycle, I think it's uncertain... The national-level backers are too strong.
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NewDAOdreamervip
· 01-08 03:00
National-level buyback is the true underlying logic; all those retail investor stories must give way.
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UnluckyValidatorvip
· 01-05 23:52
Damn, the country is starting to stockpile coins, and retail investors are still hesitating.
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BankruptcyArtistvip
· 01-05 23:48
The national-level bagholder is here. Does this mean the cycle theory is really invalidated? I remain skeptical. With the supply cap firmly in place, no matter how many countries buy the dip, it can't be filled...
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DarkPoolWatchervip
· 01-05 23:47
Hey, the national-level infrastructure really is different. This cycle might truly be broken this time. The supply cap is fixed, and countries are following one after another. It feels like an eternal motion machine. Are 100 listed companies all bottom-fishing? The outcome of institutionalized arbitrage remains to be seen. The cold winter of 2026 might really become a joke; the demand side has completely changed. But on the other hand, with such a rapid policy shift, could it be another major public opinion trap? Seeing the national-level recognition makes me a bit uneasy; it might actually make us more vulnerable to being exploited. This narrative has indeed changed, but the faster it changes, the more dangerous it becomes.
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AirdropJunkievip
· 01-05 23:45
A national-level bailout appears, and the cycle theory might really be outdated.
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GateUser-1a2ed0b9vip
· 01-05 23:39
Damn, the national-level reserves are truly different this time... From speculative assets to strategic assets, the gameplay has completely changed. This might really break the cycle theory; the supply cap is firmly in place, and more and more buyers are entering... Wait, are those 100 listed companies really arbitraging or betting on the national fortune? But the four-year cycle theory now sounds a bit naive; with a bigger pattern, the environment changes, right? When the US moves, the world follows. Game theory works like that—who dares not to follow? Compared to the gold reserve system, this is indeed no small move... But on the other hand, institutionalized arbitrage also means risks are institutionalized.
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MelonFieldvip
· 01-05 23:34
The national-level bailout is here; it's time to rewrite the cycle theory.
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