The Federal Reserve has an 82.8% probability of maintaining interest rates in January, with the market focusing on the pace of rate cuts at the beginning of the year.

【Blockchain Rhythm】According to CME Federal Funds Futures data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 82.8%, with only a 17.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. This indicates a relatively cautious outlook for short-term policy easing.

However, from a medium-term perspective, the situation is changing. By the end of March, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has increased to 43.6%, with a 6.9% chance of initiating a larger 50 basis point cut. Meanwhile, the probability of keeping rates unchanged has decreased to 49.4%.

This set of data reflects the market’s evolving expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy path: stable in the short term, with room for adjustments in the medium term. For the cryptocurrency market, expectations of rate cuts are generally positive for risk assets, but the specific timing and magnitude still require ongoing observation of official signals.