A new year, let me share some of my thoughts on the market directions.

Personally, I believe 2026 will be a year where risks outweigh opportunities.
Of course, it is precisely because the risks are significant that the value of cash becomes even more apparent.

In the upcoming crypto market, there is a high probability that we will fall into a long-term " undervaluation trap." This includes some mainstream coins, which after dropping to a certain level, will start to stagnate and become frustrating. Prices may no longer plummet, but the earning potential is extremely low.
(Undervaluation trap: after a high, staying at a low level for a long time, creating the illusion that a sharp rise is imminent.)

Especially in the public chain ecosystem, many so-called applications, to be honest, have not truly integrated into everyday life.
Metaverse, blockchain games, NFTs… and so on.
These narratives are very likely to enter a long period of stagnation.
The coin prices may still be there, but the projects are gradually dying.

If I had to point out a real possible turning point, I would pay more attention to when stablecoins truly become integrated into daily life. When payments, settlements, cross-border transactions, and commerce can’t do without them, that could potentially trigger a revaluation of the entire on-chain ecosystem.
But even so, the market still prefers new things over old ones.

As for Bitcoin, honestly, it’s become a bit boring now.
But if I had to choose between (risky投 → losing everything) and (holding Bitcoin → no big gains but no loss), I would still choose the latter.
At this stage, the crypto space is not suitable for “getting rich quick,” as the risks far outweigh the opportunities.
More realistically, most people are not suited to get rich either.
The destructive power of money is too strong.

My overall strategy remains to observe quietly and stay restrained.
Looking at the global market, it’s actually at a stage of high valuation,
risks are not low, opportunities will definitely exist. But the only premise is always: you have to stay alive.

Over these years, I’ve become increasingly aware of one thing: the market is essentially a survival of the fittest.
Many followers, as they go along, just disappear. Some have wiped out years of profits in one big loss, some have gone to zero after falling into trap projects,
and others, due to various relationships, trust issues, and misjudgments in reality, have lost their money.

Money is never something that guarantees returns just by being invested.
More often, it’s a long wait, ongoing anxiety, doubt, and sometimes ending up with nothing.

So I still stick to that saying: cash is king.

Of course, this year I will also broaden my view beyond the crypto space, paying more attention to other fields.
Because once a path dependency forms within the circle, it can dull judgment.
There are no “certain rules” in the market; if there were a formula for constantly carving the same boat, it would mean you’ve found a bug in the world.
Rest assured, the world won’t give you such loopholes.

But opportunities always exist.
They just don’t belong to emotional people; patience is needed—to wait, observe, and build.

The true investment holy grail is not to pick a few tokens daily and seek faith,
but to keep learning, continuously evolve your thinking, and improve yourself.
The market will淘汰 projects, but it will not easily淘汰 those who can evolve.