#数字资产动态追踪 Japan's financial markets are about to change in 2026. The central bank is determined to launch an interest rate hike storm—ending negative interest rates at the end of 2025, raising them to 0.75% (a nearly 30-year high), with the clear target now set at a neutral rate lower limit of 1%.

Where does the confidence come from? Unions have called for wage increases of over 5%, marking the most aggressive wage hike in 34 years. Wages are rising, and prices are also climbing; the CPI has exceeded the 2% red line for 44 consecutive months. Coupled with the yen's weakness pushing up import costs, the central bank has no choice—without raising interest rates, inflation cannot be truly contained.

But this is also quite challenging. The Sano government is aggressively injecting 18.3 trillion yen into fiscal stimulus, resulting in the most awkward combination of "tight monetary policy + loose fiscal policy"—less money from monetary tightening, but more from fiscal expansion. Japan's national debt ratio is approaching 230%. Nomura Securities predicts it will directly rise to 1% in July, but political negotiations and wage talks still introduce uncertainties.

The critical moment that could determine the 30-year economic outlook is imminent. Overcoming deflation is a historic opportunity, but the risks of recession and fiscal out-of-control are also lurking. What will happen in July? Global capital is waiting for this answer.