#美联储政策与货币政策 The surge in precious metals is driven by a reshaping of rate cut expectations, and this logic is worth a close look. Gold breaking through 4380 and silver through 68 essentially reflect risk-averse capital re-pricing the risk-free rate.

From an on-chain perspective, the key signals of this wave of market movement are already quite clear:

First, Coinbase's negative premium has persisted for 8 days. Although it has narrowed in recent days, it has not yet reversed, indicating that institutional entry remains in the observation phase in the short term. Second, at the macro level, there is indeed capital diversion—extreme strength in precious metals may attract some safe-haven funds, but this is not a long-term constraint.

More importantly, data from Polymarket shows—only a 19% chance of a 25bp rate cut in January, with an 80% chance of holding steady. This means the market's expectation of rate cuts is not that aggressive yet; the real turning point is likely in the first half of next year.

The structural opportunity lies here: as the rate cut path gradually becomes clearer, capital will shift from defensive assets to yield and resilience. BTC, as digital gold, will regain recognition for its value during a real interest rate decline cycle. Recent volatility is more about waiting for confirmation signals rather than a trend reversal.

In the short term, focus on US GDP data and Fed chair nomination developments, as these two variables will determine the next direction of capital flow.