BTC is only $6,500 away from $100,000. Analysts warn: a wave of short-term holder sell-offs is brewing.

The BTC price is currently fluctuating around $93,522, with about $6,500 remaining to reach the psychological barrier of $100,000. However, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel’s latest analysis, this upward trajectory may not be smooth sailing. On the surface, it appears that weakening selling pressure is driving the rally, but in reality, it is a “passive pause” by short-term holders. Once the price hits $100,000, this group could mount a fierce counterattack.

Why is selling pressure now weakening?

The uniqueness of short-term holders being “underwater”

Short-term holder realized price (STH Realized Price) refers to the average acquisition cost of coins held for less than 155 days. Currently, BTC is trading below this price, meaning most short-term holders are at a loss, a situation industry insiders call “underwater.”

This state has a special market effect: losing holders are usually reluctant to sell quickly because doing so would realize their losses. This is why current selling pressure in the market is significantly suppressed. Axel points out that the absence of this pressure provides room for BTC to rise.

Oscillators remain in a “suppressed” state

Analysts mention a key technical indicator—the SMA remains below the zero line. When this indicator continues to decline, it signals a transition into distribution territory, which is a negative sign. But this has not yet happened; the oscillator still maintains in an area where selling pressure is suppressed, supporting the current upward trend.

Why is $100,000 a critical threshold?

From “underwater” to “profitable” turning point

The key point at the $100,000 level is that when BTC reaches this price, the average cost basis for many short-term holders will be covered, shifting them from a loss to a profit. Once they break even or start making profits, their profit-taking potential is unleashed.

Potential selling pressure

Axel explicitly states that once the price hits $100,000 and short-term holders return to breakeven or profit, this group will begin to sell, creating downward pressure on the price. This is not speculation but a reasonable inference based on market participant behavior.

The other side of market structure

Related information shows that although short-term holders face selling pressure, interesting developments are happening on the other end of the market:

• The pace of new whale accumulation of BTC is at its highest in history, with over 100,000 new whales holding more than $12 billion worth of BTC.
• The average monthly inflow of Bitcoin into Binance has increased to about 29.7 BTC per transaction, nearly 34 times higher than early 2021, reflecting significantly increased activity among large investors.

This indicates that long-term market participants are actively accumulating, while short-term participants are passively observing. This structural opposition may serve as a deep support for the current rally.

Key confirmation signals

Axel emphasizes that the true confirmation of a market strengthening is when the price closes above the realized price of short-term holders. In other words, only when BTC stabilizes above this level does the “underwater” situation for short-term holders truly improve, and the market enters a new phase.

Summary

The current rally in BTC is more of a “passive easing” rather than an “active demand.” Short-term holders, due to losses, are forced to endure, giving the market a breather. But $100,000 acts like a dividing line—once broken through, this suppressed group will release selling pressure.

What is truly worth watching is not whether BTC can surge to $100,000, but what happens after surpassing it. The accumulation behavior of long-term participants and profit-taking by short-term traders will determine the subsequent trend. Investors should closely monitor shifts in short-term holder behavior, as this could be key to judging the next phase of the market.