#美联储政策与货币政策 The expectation of rate cuts is truly rewriting asset pricing logic. Gold at 4380, silver at 68, platinum at 2000—what does this synchronized surge in precious metals indicate? Safe-haven funds are actively seeking assets with no interest costs—this is a very clear signal.

Interestingly, the spillover effect of this market trend is brewing in the crypto space. Historical experience tells us that when real interest rates decline and risk-free returns shrink, funds completing safe-haven allocations will gradually spill over into high-volatility assets. The narrative of BTC as "digital gold" will be reactivated, but the key lies in the time lag—short-term precious metals may divert some funds, and we must acknowledge this.

However, looking at Polymarket data, the probability of maintaining interest rates in January remains as high as 80%, which means the truly accommodative path has not been fully established. My observation is that this stage tests traders' sensitivity to style rotation. If you're trading with top players, now you need to watch how they switch between defensive and highly elastic assets—some top traders are already positioning, and Michael Saylor is still adding to his holdings. These details are worth paying attention to.

Structural opportunities definitely exist, but don’t be blinded by the extreme strength of precious metals. Once the rate cut path becomes clearer, the focus will shift from defense to yield and resilience—that will be the real test of a trader’s eye. The current strategy should be to maintain flexible position ratios and reserve ammunition.