#预测市场 Polymarket's data tells an interesting story — the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 has dropped from 10% to 8%, the $95,000 target from 32% to 25%, while the risk of falling below $80,000 has decreased from 18% to 15%. It seems the market is re-pricing the odds of hitting $100,000 within the year.

This change in probability is actually very important for copy traders. How will aggressive traders adjust their positions and stop-loss settings at this point? Are conservative traders reducing their holdings on rallies? These clues can be seen from their actual operations.

My logic is this: predicted probabilities essentially reflect market consensus. When the consensus is rapidly adjusting, it often indicates that large funds are quietly changing hands. At this moment, the key for copy traders is not betting on the probability itself, but observing how those with clear trading styles respond — whether aggressive traders are still increasing their positions betting on a rebound, or whether cautious traders have already started to defend.

Real profit opportunities often lie not in being right or wrong on predictions, but in recognizing the response logic of top traders. Practice has shown that following traders who can quickly adjust their strategies rather than stubbornly sticking to a position results in a healthier risk-reward ratio.