Trump has already decided on the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, and the market is fiercely competing among the three contenders.

Trump has already decided on the next Federal Reserve Chair but has chosen to keep it secret. According to the latest news, he stated in an interview with The New York Times, “I have made my decision,” but did not reveal any specific names. This uncertainty has instead sparked intense market speculation, with the prediction market Kalshi providing probability rankings for three candidates, becoming a current focal point.

Market Probabilities for the Three Candidates

Waugh and Hasset have nearly identical probabilities, both around 40%, reflecting the market’s recognition of both. Notably, Trump specifically mentioned Hasset, calling him “absolutely one of my favorites.” While not a direct confirmation, this hints at Hasset’s important position in Trump’s mind.

Policy Considerations Behind Candidate Selection

What kind of Fed Chair does Trump need?

The Trump administration is pushing an aggressive policy agenda, including large-scale tariffs and increased defense spending, which could lead to inflationary pressures. According to related reports, Trump has warned that Democrats will face impeachment if they regain control of Congress, with domestic political tensions high and midterm elections a key variable. In this context, Trump needs a Fed Chair who can support his policy agenda and is relatively dovish.

Hasset, as the Chief Economic Advisor, has worked within the Trump administration and is most familiar with its policy ideas. Waugh, although a former Vice Chair, has greater independence. This may explain why Trump has expressed favorable views toward Hasset.

Market’s Practical Considerations

The market assigns a higher probability to Waugh (41% vs. 39%), possibly reflecting investor trust in his independence and professional experience. Waugh has worked in the Federal Reserve system for many years, aligning more with traditional standards for Fed leadership. However, this may also indicate market uncertainty regarding Trump’s political considerations.

Impact of the Fed Chair Choice on the Cryptocurrency Market

The policy orientation of the Fed Chair will directly influence interest rates, liquidity, and dollar policy, thereby affecting the entire cryptocurrency market.

Possible Policy Differences

If Hasset is elected, as Trump’s confidant, he is more likely to support relatively dovish monetary policy, which is generally favorable for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). If Waugh is elected, he might maintain more traditional Fed independence, leading to more cautious policies.

Broader Impacts

According to related reports, interventionist policies by the Trump administration are raising concerns about de-dollarization. The Fed Chair’s candidate and policy stance will directly impact the international status of the dollar. If the new Chair adopts overly dovish policies, it could accelerate de-dollarization, which may be positive for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin.

Follow-up Focus

The formal nomination and Senate confirmation process for the Fed Chair will take time. During this period, markets will closely watch Trump’s further statements, the candidates’ public remarks, and Congressional reactions. Especially amid midterm election risks and political uncertainties, the choice of Fed Chair could become an important political bargaining chip.

Summary

Trump has decided on a Fed Chair but remains secretive, reflecting the sensitivity of this decision. Currently, markets favor Hasset and Waugh, but they represent different policy philosophies. The new Fed Chair will take office against the backdrop of Trump’s aggressive policy agenda and domestic political tensions, with their policy stance directly impacting the dollar, interest rates, and the crypto market. Until the announcement, this uncertainty will continue to drive market volatility and speculation.