#美国贸易赤字状况 The story behind the US trade deficit is far more complex than surface numbers suggest. Simply put, when the total value of imported goods and services exceeds exports, the difference is called a trade deficit. The US has been stuck in this predicament for a long time, with a severe goods trade deficit. Although services like finance and technology can generate some surplus, it's just a drop in the bucket.

Recent data shows how volatile this situation can be—October's deficit was $294 billion, a month-on-month drop of 39%, hitting a new low since June 2009. Meanwhile, exports actually increased by 2.6% to $302 billion, while imports fell by 3.2% to $314 billion. This improvement is somewhat superficial, mainly due to a surge in gold exports and a significant decline in pharmaceutical imports. Can this trend continue? It's hard to say.

Looking at September's data makes it clearer—the deficit was $528 billion, only a 10.9% decrease month-on-month, with exports around $300 billion and imports over $340 billion. What about July? The deficit was $783 billion, actually increasing by 32.5% month-on-month, the highest since March. The first eight months of the year are even more exaggerated—year-over-year, the deficit expanded by 25%, with exports barely growing by 5.1%, but imports surged by 9.2%.

Why is this deficit so stubborn? It fundamentally results from the interaction of several factors:

**The Game of Consumption and Savings.** The more Americans spend, the lower the national savings rate. Strong demand coupled with insufficient domestic capacity means they have to buy from abroad. Mid- and low-end manufacturing has long moved overseas, and imports are needed for consumer goods, electronics, textiles, and more. In the short term, this benefits consumers with cheaper goods and helps curb inflation. But in the long run? Problems pile up.

**The Double-Edged Sword of Dollar Hegemony.** As the global reserve currency, the dollar should theoretically benefit the US. But in reality, it reinforces import advantages. An overvalued dollar makes US goods more expensive and imports cheaper, naturally widening the trade gap. At the same time, this is also one of the reasons the US can finance its external debt at low cost.

**Short-Term Policy Tug-of-War.** Tariffs, export controls, and other policy tools sound powerful and can cause short-term fluctuations (like in October), but their long-term effects are limited. Structural issues can't be fixed with tariffs alone.

**What Are the Impacts and Outlook?**

In the short term, this trade deficit will continue to fluctuate. The sharp narrowing in October might be a fleeting phenomenon; supply chain adjustments, exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical policies will keep stirring the pot. This could impact the dollar exchange rate, inflation expectations, and even the crypto markets. In the long run, it’s difficult for the US to completely reverse this trend; the deficit pattern will persist, fluctuating with economic cycles and policy environments.

For investors, trade dynamics involve key variables like dollar movements, inflation expectations, and policy uncertainties—all crucial for asset allocation. The key question is whether policies will truly promote industrial reshoring or if they are just superficial measures.