The US non-farm payrolls data for December just released—only 64,000 new jobs. This number is quite eye-catching. The previous month was only 60,000, and two consecutive months of weakness contrast sharply with the typical 200,000-300,000 over the past two years, highlighting a significant gap. The market's reaction was quite direct: this indicates that the labor market is cooling rapidly.

Once the data was out, everyone immediately started pondering the Federal Reserve's next move. After all, the Fed has always considered full employment an important reference for rate cuts. Now that employment is so weak, expectations for rate cuts are naturally reactivated. Following this logic, the dollar might weaken, bond yields could decline, gold might rise, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies could benefit from improved liquidity.

But there's a detail that can't be ignored. Subsequent wage data is equally critical—if wage growth also slows down, the story of rate cuts makes more sense; but if wages remain high, it creates a contradiction: weak employment but persistent inflation. The Fed might become more hesitant. Also, don't forget that winter is prone to seasonal factors, so this data has limited explanatory power. We really need to wait until January to see whether this is a trend or just short-term volatility.

For traders, this report can indeed shake market expectations and potentially boost valuations of risk assets like cryptocurrencies. But beware of a trap: the market may have already priced in rate cut expectations. If subsequent CPI data doesn't align, and the Fed's policy remains uncertain, the risk of expectations falling short increases.

In simple terms, weak employment data is a signal, but not the whole story. The ideal scenario would be weak employment coupled with cooling inflation. We've achieved the first part; the key is whether inflation will cooperate. Cryptocurrencies might have short-term opportunities, but volatility is never small. Ordinary investors should not be blinded by expectations of "massive liquidity" and should keep a close eye on upcoming data and the Fed's actual stance.