2026-01-09 09:34:17

The non-farm employment data will be released at 21:30 tonight, which could be a key point in recent times to shake the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations.

Based on current market trading prices, the probability of maintaining the current federal funds rate in January has already exceeded 80%, and it is unlikely that the non-farm data will significantly change this high-probability expectation in the short term.

But don’t be too pessimistic. If the non-farm data shows surprisingly weak results—such as a sharp drop in new jobs, a sudden spike in the unemployment rate, or a noticeable slowdown in wage growth—then expectations for rate cuts will instantly heat up. At that point, market sentiment will shift from "policy suppression" directly to "policy friendliness," giving risk assets (including BTC, ETH, and others) a chance to breathe.

But what if the data performs in line with expectations, within the anticipated range? Then there’s not much to watch. The Federal Reserve will continue to proceed at its established pace, and asset prices are likely to oscillate within the current range, with no major movements.

BTC0,23%

ETH0,67%

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DancingCandles

· 01-10 06:27

80% chance of holding steady... feels like the Fed is going to hold us down again this time.

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DeadTrades_Walking

· 01-09 19:33

It's that 80% chance sitting there again, feeling like the market is probably going to trap everyone to death.

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NFTArchaeologis

· 01-09 10:04

Non-farm data, to put it simply, is a game of probabilities—80% of the time it maintains the status quo, so what about the remaining 20%? Sometimes, historical turning points happen to be hidden within that inconspicuous 20%. It's like excavating ancient relics—either you find nothing, or with one shovel, you uncover a cultural artifact.

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ContractFreelancer

· 01-09 10:03

80% chance of doing nothing, so basically just giving up, waiting for a black swan event data.

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CryptoFortuneTeller

· 01-09 09:53

80% chance of not moving, so let's just wait for the fluctuation... Just quietly making big profits.

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NFTArtisanHQ

· 01-09 09:53

so basically we're waiting for the fed to blink first... but let's be honest, nfp data rarely breaks the paradigm they've already locked in. it's all just aesthetic volatility at this point tbh

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RumbleValidator

· 01-09 09:39

There is an 80% chance that the pricing has already been factored in; the real alpha lies in extreme data. When weak data is released, BTC's node network immediately becomes active, which is pure logic.

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