2026-01-09 10:22:21

A recent interesting prediction has emerged in the market—who will break through $5,000 first, gold or Ethereum? According to prediction market data, the total betting amount on this "competition" has approached $840,000, indicating significant interest.

Currently, the market assigns a higher probability to gold, with about 68% believing that gold will reach $5,000 before June 30, 2026. In comparison, Ethereum has an estimated probability of around 32%.

Interestingly, the reference standards used in this prediction are quite clear—gold prices are based on COMEX continuous contracts, while Ethereum is referenced to spot market prices. If neither reaches $5,000 by the settlement date, both are settled proportionally at 50%.

Looking at the current prices, gold still has some distance to go to reach $5,000, while Ethereum has greater room for growth. Regardless of the outcome, the popularity of this prediction market itself reflects the market's expectations for the future trends of these two major assets. Who do you think is more promising?

ETH0,26%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

18 Likes

Reward
18
10
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ForkPrince

· 7h ago

Huh? Betting $840,000 on this? You must have way too much idle money. --- If ETH really can catch up to gold, that would be unbelievable. I bet 32% because of a gambler's mentality. --- Wait, are they using different standards? Then this prediction itself is a bit questionable. --- Honestly, the 68% probability for gold is purely because old antiques are more stable, while the 32% for ETH is just dreamers playing with fire. --- 2026 is still far away. It's more practical to focus on market trends than to place bets now. --- It's just another capital gamble; retail investors following the trend are just handing over money. --- Ethereum at 5000? It needs to multiply several times; gold is actually easier. This data doesn't mean much.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoCross-TalkClub

· 11h ago

Laughing to death, betting $840,000 on whether gold or Ethereum will hit 5000 first, how bored must I be, I invested in both going bankrupt --- Gold has a 68% probability? I think, this is just institutions fooling retail investors, just wait and see --- Wake up everyone, what’s so great about Ethereum’s upward potential? Without the next bull market, everything you say is pointless --- The popularity of predicting markets = the popularity of retail investors recharging, am I right everyone? --- Still have to wait more than two years until 2026, I’m afraid the coins will be gone by then, but gold will still be there --- This is incredible, still settling at 50% each, this rule is like designing an ATM for the manipulators

View OriginalReply0

JustHodlIt

· 01-10 08:04

Gold stability is stable, but this probability setup clearly favors traditional assets. Let's wait and see if ETH will explode.

View OriginalReply0

NoodlesOrTokens

· 01-09 22:14

That group of people in gold is too conservative. ETH is skyrocketing, and it will definitely explode before 2026.

View OriginalReply0

GasWaster

· 01-09 10:52

Oh my god, ETH has a 32% chance to gamble 840,000 USD, it's crazy, crazy

View OriginalReply0

DaoDeveloper

· 01-09 10:51

ngl the oracle design here is kinda sus... comex spot vs eth perps? that's not exactly apples-to-apples comparison. the real question is whether we're pricing in macro tail risk or just extrapolating recent trends

Reply0

SmartMoneyWallet

· 01-09 10:46

A bet of $840,000? That number doesn't really tell us anything... We need to look at the capital flow. Do you have a clear idea of where the main chips are?

View OriginalReply0

Liquidated_Larry

· 01-09 10:44

The Gold Conservative vs. Ethereum Gambler, this is the market split. ETH has much more room to double, but 68% betting on gold—what does that mean? Everyone's just scared. This prediction market is just for fun; who dares to go all-in with real money? Ethereum needs to double to 5000, while gold just needs to go up a bit—completely different levels of difficulty. The $840,000 hype is intense; just waiting to see who gets proven wrong.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoPhoenix

· 01-09 10:41

Wait a minute, with a 32% chance for Ethereum, are you still daring to bet? This is the bottom range, brothers. The opportunity is right in front of you. Can that old antique gold compare to our reborn Ethereum? Remember, when losing money, it's most important to stay clear-headed. Before 2026, Ethereum needs to hit 5000; faith is the answer. The 68 to 32 ratio is actually the market giving smart people an opportunity. Patience and waiting for value to return is the key. It was underestimated by the market again, but this wave's energy conservation means the next round will inevitably see a compensatory rise. If you’re betting on my crypto bag, choose ETH. Phoenix reborn from the ashes, what is gold? Once your mindset is rebuilt, it's time to build your position, everyone.

View OriginalReply0

SingleForYears

· 01-09 10:33

Gold's 68% is purely due to the dominance of traditional finance, and the betting setup is a bit biased. Doubling ETH by 2026 is not difficult, but that 5000... for gold makes the probability quite uncertain. Betting on both is a safer bet; anyway, both can make money. The most interesting thing about this kind of prediction market is that money tells the truth. It feels like Ethereum's chances are underestimated. The 68 to 32 ratio looks ridiculous; the market always overestimates traditional assets. Hey, if it were up to me, I'd go all-in on ETH; gold is too boring.

View OriginalReply0