Friends who have been炒山寨 (speculating on altcoins), have you gotten tired of looking at K-line charts over the past four years? Since that big crash last year, altcoins haven't even fallen 80%—it's embarrassing to say you've gone through this bear market. Project teams might be thinking about selling servers to recover funds.

Some people are certain that this track is completely finished, but I want to say: don’t be too pessimistic. Think about how much energy a spring that has been compressed for so long can rebound with.

How ugly has the altcoin track been over these four years? Open any top exchange’s altcoin ranking, pick a project at random, and look at its historical trend. It’s basically a continuous decline combined with long periods of sideways movement. According to Santiment data, the 90-day active addresses for retail holders dropped to 12.3%, and the Fear & Greed Index has been below 20 for 15 consecutive weeks—this has only happened once before, in March 2020.

The current situation is that sellers can’t sell, and buyers are waiting. The market has fallen as far as it can go—what does that mean? It means the bubble has been squeezed out completely. If it falls further, it’s no longer just a correction; it’s a problem with the industry itself.

The key point is this: I’ve seen three bull-bear cycles, and in these four years, the true "accumulation window" for altcoins has only appeared four times. The first three times, either the window was too short to catch, or it was accompanied by black swan events that scared people away from buying. Now, what’s in front of us is the last chance to get on board in this cycle. Miss it, and the next window might take another four or five years to appear.

Someone will definitely ask: How do you know this is the last time? What if it falls again? That’s a good question, but based on cycle patterns, market sentiment indicators, and capital conditions, the bottom characteristics have already formed, and the logic chain for a rebound is solid.