Tonight at 9:30 PM, the non-farm payroll data will be released. Many beginners start trading by focusing on the new employment numbers, but they often get beaten up by the market.

Here’s a clear point—non-farm data is not a game of looking at a single number. What truly influences the market are three sets of data combined: the number of new jobs added, the unemployment rate, and the wage growth rate. Only by looking at these three together can we answer the market’s most concerned question—will the Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates?

**The market’s logic is straightforward:**

Poor economic data (rising unemployment rate, bubble-like new employment figures)? That indicates economic tightening, and rate cuts are certain to come. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to strengthen.

Strong economic data (low unemployment rate, booming employment growth)? That shows economic resilience, and rate cuts may be delayed. Risk assets are likely to be hammered down.

**How to quickly judge the direction?**

Bullish signals: Unemployment rate surpasses 4.7%, or new employment is far below the widely expected 55,000.

Bearish signals: New employment far exceeds expectations, and the unemployment rate remains low or continues to decline.

**Here’s the most common pitfall—**

When the data is released, don’t rush in at the first second. What are seasoned traders doing? Watching closely: Is this surprise data really the key driver of the trend? Are the market’s sharp moves up or down genuine signals or just reflex actions? Has the rate expectation truly shifted?

On non-farm nights, the winners are often not those who guess the right direction, but those who don’t rush and think clearly.

Instead of obsessing over “Will it go up or down this time,” ask yourself—what is the market most afraid of right now? What is it secretly hoping for?

A golden rule: After the data is released, give the market 30 minutes to digest the initial intense volatility. Watching how prices behave at key levels is a hundred times more useful than blindly following the trend. Calm trading, planning ahead—that’s the longest-lasting strategy.