#2026年比特币价格展望 Double thunder strikes! Non-farm payrolls + tariff policies both coming into effect tonight, $BTC $ETH $BNB may usher in the first major wave in 2026.

1. US December Non-Farm Payroll Data: The Employment Barometer for the New Year

Why is this data so eye-catching? It’s the first comprehensive employment report after the government shutdown, and global traders are waiting for it. The market generally expects around 70,000 new jobs (though the forecast range varies from 25,000 to over a hundred thousand), with the unemployment rate possibly slightly falling back to 4.5%.

What will it mean for digital assets? It all depends on the deviation from expectations—

Data in line with expectations (6-10K new jobs): The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut plans remain basically unchanged, which is a positive signal for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Data significantly stronger than expected (over 120K new jobs): The pace of rate cuts might be delayed, the dollar could strengthen, and Bitcoin may face short-term pressure.

Data notably weaker than expected (less than 50K new jobs): The market will reassess the likelihood of rate cuts, and cryptocurrencies could see a rebound.

2. Tariff Policy Deadlock: The Supreme Court’s Final Decision

This lawsuit has essentially become a game of probability—80% of market participants believe the Supreme Court will rule it unconstitutional, while only 20% think it will pass.

If the court rules the policy invalid: The US fiscal gap will widen, and the logic of safe-haven funds flowing into cryptocurrencies becomes more solid.

If the court upholds or sends it back to Congress: Policy uncertainty will persist longer, making Bitcoin’s role as a hedge even more important.

🌟 Market Node: Tonight’s two "tests" are more likely to favor cryptocurrencies. After the data is released, major platforms will update market analysis in real time.