When direct acquisition isn't on the table, what leverage remains? The answer lies in coercive diplomacy—a toolkit far more sophisticated than headlines suggest. Think of it this way: security guarantees become negotiable chips. Intelligence cooperation can be scaled back. Access to cutting-edge technology becomes conditional. Even NATO membership itself transforms into a pressure point.

But here's what bothers most analysts: they immediately jump to military intervention as the logical next step. That take? It's painfully surface-level. The real machinery of state-level negotiations operates through economic interdependence, strategic partnerships, and institutional leverage. These tools don't require boots on the ground—they require patience, institutional understanding, and willingness to reshape alliances over time. That's where the actual complexity lives.