#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Let's talk about the recently released US unemployment data, starting with a point that is often overlooked.

At first glance, the data looks good:
• Market expectation for the unemployment rate: 4.5%
• Actual release: 4.4%

Below expectations, which is generally considered positive. The problem is—data needs to be looked at more deeply.

The unemployed population has decreased from 7.78 million to 7.50 million, a reduction of 280,000. It sounds like the economy is absorbing unemployed workers, but the reality isn't that simple.

Within these 280,000, most are not newly created jobs.

There is a specific detail in unemployment statistics called "people who re-enter the labor force but still haven't found a job." This group has decreased from 2.60 million to 2.34 million, a drop of 260,000. In other words, the main reason for the decline in unemployment numbers is largely due to this category.

But where did these 260,000 go? There are two possibilities:

**Possibility One** (Positive interpretation)
They found jobs.

**Possibility Two** (Alarm bell)
They gave up looking for work and exited the labor force altogether.

The key indicator to watch is the labor force participation rate.

The data is straightforward:
• Labor force participation rate dropped from 62.5% to 62.4%
• The number of people leaving the labor force increased by 229,000

What does this indicate? It shows that the seemingly positive decline in unemployment is actually more due to people no longer looking for work, rather than the market genuinely creating new jobs to absorb them.

So, the real situation is:

This employment report looks good, but if you reframe the logic, it becomes clear—unemployment rate decline ≠ improvement in employment conditions. The participation rate is declining, and this "pretty" unemployment figure is essentially passively formed, a result of statistical adjustments, not a reflection of genuine market demand.

Markets are easily influenced by headlines, but what really matters is whether the participation rate can rebound and whether companies continue to expand their job openings. These factors determine the true quality of employment.