2026-01-11 03:22:53

Many people focus solely on the interest spread when doing stablecoin arbitrage, but end up falling into countless pitfalls. In fact, the key is not how high the interest rate is, but when you get on board.

Taking BTC collateral as an example, choosing the wrong timing can instantly expose you to liquidation risk. So how do you choose?

**Support rebound is the first signal**

When BTC tests the bottom near key support levels like the weekly EMA50 and then rebounds, combined with RSI moving up from the oversold zone (<30) and trading volume increasing, this generally indicates a true bottom is forming. Establishing a position at this point makes the risk relatively controllable.

**Confirmation of pullback after breakout is the most stable**

When BTC breaks through an important resistance level and then pulls back without surpassing the previous high, and MACD confirms a golden cross indicating the trend continues—this kind of movement has the highest success rate for arbitrage positions. The market has already validated the direction; you are just getting on at the safest point.

**Be cautious before volatility rapidly contracts**

The Bollinger Bands suddenly narrow to the tightest in nearly three months, and ATR indicates extremely low volatility. This actually signals the market is gathering strength. Major moves often erupt suddenly at this time, so it’s wiser to lay in wait rather than chase highs.

**Avoid these times in reverse**

Near resistance levels is the most dangerous. When RSI is in the overbought zone (>70), don’t be greedy. Also, avoid entering just hours before major positive news releases. History repeatedly proves that traps of buying on expectations and selling on facts are always deep.

**Sentiment index is another dimension for reference**

When the market fear index drops to extremes (<20), it indicates everyone is scared away, which is actually a good time to gradually increase positions. Conversely, when the index soars to extreme greed (>80), new positions should slow down or even consider partial profit-taking to lock in gains.

The core of this strategy is: technical analysis tells you the timing, sentiment analysis helps confirm, and combining both allows you to balance risk and reward optimally.

BTC0,7%

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 23h ago

Ha, another master of timing, speaking quite convincingly The majority are always the ones caught chasing high. This theory is good, but the key is to have the discipline to wait when executing Support rebounds are reliable, but you must have the patience to wait I've seen many cases of EMA50 breakdown leading to liquidation. Don't just look at indicators; you also need to consider the leverage limits of the exchange The period when Bollinger Bands narrow is indeed intense, but I still trust the silence before the explosion Extreme greed in the sentiment index suggests braking. It's easy to say but hard to do. Who doesn't want to earn more?

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CodeZeroBasis

· 01-11 03:50

Here are some stylistically diverse comments: --- Once again, this theory sounds smooth, but it's extremely difficult to get started. --- I've seen too many false rebounds at support levels. Do you really dare to go all-in? --- When the fear index is below 20, I get so scared I don't dare to move, let alone add to my position. --- It sounds good, but basically it's just buying low and selling high. But who can really hit the mark? --- I never trust the emotion index; I only believe that candlestick charts don't lie. --- Is a narrowing Bollinger Band a sign of gathering strength? I feel like it just means no one is trading. --- Every time I analyze technicals, I think I've understood something, but then I get slapped in the face when I trade.

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BankruptcyArtist

· 01-11 03:45

That's true, but I still prefer to wait for the rebound after a big dip before buying, as it reduces psychological pressure. Staring at the K-line every day is too exhausting; I usually just watch the Fear Index, that thing is the most honest. Honestly, just looking at charts isn't enough; discipline is key, don't get blinded by FOMO. This theory sounds good, but actual trading is a completely different story. A rebound at the support level is indeed a signal, but when the rebound fails, you can lose money very quickly. Wait, are these indicator combinations you're talking about the same as the tutorials from some big V I watch? Stablecoin arbitrage sounds easy, but it's more complicated than you think. Some protocols can fail at the slightest disturbance. After all this tinkering, I found that the simplest strategy is to buy when you're afraid and sell when you're greedy; everything else is just showmanship.

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CryptoWageSlave

· 01-11 03:38

It's the same theory again. To put it nicely, it's basically just gambling on timing. Last time, I bought in at the support rebound, and as a result, I got trapped and couldn't get out. Honestly, no matter how fancy technical indicators are, luck still matters more. Reliable operation really comes down to one word—wait. Wait until the market truly scares people before taking action. Regarding liquidation risk, I have some words to say. No matter how strict the margin ratio is calculated, it can't withstand black swan events. Narrowing Bollinger Bands can indeed make money, but the prerequisite is that you survive long enough to see that big market explosion. That's the most heartbreaking part.

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SerumSqueezer

· 01-11 03:33

Basically, it still depends on market intuition. No matter how perfect the technical indicators are, they still need market validation. After many pitfalls, I realize that high-spread trades are often a game of risking it all. I've tried the EMA50 rebound strategy, but the times I actually made money were during extreme fear index moments. The key is still mindset; greed is often when liquidation is closest to you. This article is well-written, but only in practice do you realize how difficult it really is. I would rather earn less than be forcibly liquidated.

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