Regarding BTC, there is a verified pattern that is simple and straightforward but very effective: the price will never stay below the cost of electricity for mining in the long term.
Let's calculate the current situation. The total network hash rate combined with energy prices puts Bitcoin's production cost at approximately $71,000. This is not some mystical concept; it's basic economics—if production isn't profitable, it will naturally cease.
What happens when market prices approach or even fall below this cost line? Inefficient miners will shut down first, causing the overall network hash rate to decline. Difficulty adjustments follow, forcing supply to contract, which gives the price some support.
Therefore, electricity cost isn't a "target price"; it acts more like a safety cushion, preventing the price from falling infinitely.
Looking back at history, every major cycle correction has seen the price settle near the cost area, without experiencing a complete collapse.
So the question is: instead of obsessing over "how low can it go," it's better to understand this fact: as long as Bitcoin continues to be mined continuously, this electricity cost will always be an unavoidable market benchmark. It's not just a theory; it's a reality repeatedly confirmed by the market.
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GateUser-44a00d6c
· 01-11 04:50
The 71,000 line is interesting; history really hasn't lied to us.
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GasFeeCrier
· 01-11 04:48
This logic at first glance seems very solid, but it feels like a key variable is missing — miner sentiment.
Will history really repeat itself so predictably?
Can 71,000 truly withstand the market's madness?
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AirdropFatigue
· 01-11 04:48
Calculating the 71,000 cost line, it doesn't seem that the bottom is that scary.
Regarding BTC, there is a verified pattern that is simple and straightforward but very effective: the price will never stay below the cost of electricity for mining in the long term.
Let's calculate the current situation. The total network hash rate combined with energy prices puts Bitcoin's production cost at approximately $71,000. This is not some mystical concept; it's basic economics—if production isn't profitable, it will naturally cease.
What happens when market prices approach or even fall below this cost line? Inefficient miners will shut down first, causing the overall network hash rate to decline. Difficulty adjustments follow, forcing supply to contract, which gives the price some support.
Therefore, electricity cost isn't a "target price"; it acts more like a safety cushion, preventing the price from falling infinitely.
Looking back at history, every major cycle correction has seen the price settle near the cost area, without experiencing a complete collapse.
So the question is: instead of obsessing over "how low can it go," it's better to understand this fact: as long as Bitcoin continues to be mined continuously, this electricity cost will always be an unavoidable market benchmark. It's not just a theory; it's a reality repeatedly confirmed by the market.