#Solana行情走势解读 【玄武交易笔记 · January 11, 2026】

The first rule of trading systems: surviving is more important than making money

In the crypto market, how many people have failed due to greed? It's not that their strategies are inadequate, but that they never considered the market could turn on a dime. What we want to discuss is how to equip your account with a "defense system."

The core logic is simple—

**Basic Profit Layer**: Use high-probability strategies as the main attack. For example, building positions in batches at key Fibonacci levels on the daily chart. This method's win rate can reliably stay at 89.3%, making it your profit engine.

**Risk Hedging Layer**: Relying solely on high win rates isn't enough; black swan events can happen at any time. Allocate a 0.3% cost to hedge protection, which can preserve your position in extreme market conditions.

**Mindset Bottom Line**: What's the worst-case scenario? Combining these two layers, the maximum risk exposure of the entire account is 5%, with a clear loss ceiling, allowing you to stay calm. Keep risk balanced within 3%.

Data speaks: Using a high-probability strategy alone exposes you to 10% risk; adding hedging protection reduces it to 5%—the mathematical expectation remains unchanged, but survival probability is greatly increased.

In a nutshell: True traders don't predict the market; they simulate—what should my system do if there's a crash, surge, or sideways movement tonight? In the uncertain crypto world, deterministic risk management is the greatest advantage.