Optimistic about January but bearish for the whole year, why does Willy Woo give contradictory judgments?

Crypto analyst Willy Woo’s latest comments have sparked attention: he is optimistic about Bitcoin’s performance from late January to February, but remains cautious about the entire year of 2026. Behind this seemingly contradictory judgment reflects the complex situation where short-term opportunities and long-term risks coexist in the current market.

The Triple Support for Short-Term Optimism

According to Willy Woo’s analysis, Bitcoin is currently supported by multiple positive factors. First, his capital flow model predicts that Bitcoin has been steadily strengthening since hitting bottom on December 24, 2025. Such models typically take 2-3 weeks to fully reflect in the price, and this process is underway.

The second positive factor comes from the futures market. Liquidity in the fiat (futures) market has been recovering after months of stagnation, similar to the situation in mid-2021, which contributed to the second top of the previous cycle. This suggests that institutional funds may be re-entering the market.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s current price is around $90,623, needing to break through the key resistance zone of $98,000-$100,000. Once this level is surpassed, the next step is to observe resistance at previous all-time highs. In the short term, these factors support a price increase.

The Deep Logic Behind the Bearish Outlook for the Whole Year

However, Willy Woo’s cautious attitude is also worth noting. He points out that from a macro perspective, since January 2025, liquidity relative to price momentum has been weakening. This is a critical warning signal.

He describes the current market state as being in a “final stage hot zone,” meaning that although prices are rising, the momentum lacks sufficient liquidity support. In such a situation, rebounds may lack sustainability. Related data also confirms this: over the past three days, 11 US Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced a net outflow of $1.128 billion, indicating a lack of confidence among institutional investors.

Where Is the Key Turning Point?

Willy Woo explicitly states that the only condition that could change his bearish outlook is a large influx of spot (long-term) liquidity in the coming months, breaking the downtrend. This means not only a price increase but also genuine long-term capital entering the market.

It is worth noting that he emphasizes that a bear market has not yet been confirmed. A bear market is confirmed when Bitcoin funds continue to flow out, which is a lagging indicator at the cycle top. In other words, there is still room for a market turnaround, but substantial liquidity improvement is needed.

Related information shows that Bitcoin’s long-term capital inflow trend remains moderate, similar to the “accumulation phase” in early 2020, consistent with the four-year cycle pattern. A potential positive factor is Japan classifying Bitcoin as a financial product, reducing the tax rate to 20%, which could stimulate buying interest among Japanese investors.

Summary

Willy Woo’s view can be summarized as: in the short term (1-2 months), technical and liquidity recovery support are present, warranting attention; but the weakening liquidity trend throughout 2026 is concerning. The market is at a delicate balance point—short-term rebounds may occur, but whether they develop into a genuine upward trend depends on a large influx of spot liquidity. Investors should enjoy short-term opportunities while remaining cautious of the risks posed by insufficient long-term liquidity.