Gold just broke above the $4600 mark, and the rally is indeed quite fierce. But to truly understand this wave of market movement, we need to see the underlying forces working together—questions about the Federal Reserve's independence, escalating geopolitical tensions, soft employment data raising expectations of rate cuts, along with global central banks continuously buying gold.

The market sentiment also reflects this heat. Yesterday, gold opened high and never looked back, moving into a one-sided rally and closing with a volume-increasing bullish candlestick. Gold ETFs added 6.24 tons in holdings, and this increase in positions often indicates the true stance of institutions and large funds.

However, after this rapid surge, the market may become more sensitive. Several key points to watch:

First is the US CPI data. The Consumer Price Index will be released this afternoon, and this data will directly influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve's future policy. If inflation exceeds expectations, the market's outlook on the pace of rate cuts will need to be readjusted, potentially causing significant volatility in gold prices.

Second is the change in market sentiment. Some institutional analysts believe that short-term trend-following funds have quietly closed positions to lock in profits. When the commodity index undergoes rebalancing at the beginning of the year, it could also trigger a wave of technical selling pressure. These are all potential risk points.