The source of Bitcoin's recent plunge: 1/ Anomalies first appeared on IBIT on February 6th, with a single-day trading volume of approximately $10.7 billion, nearly double the previous all-time high. The options premium was about $900 million, setting a new record. Both spot and options volumes surged simultaneously, a rare resonance that seems more like a concentrated action around existing positions. 2/ Price declines but no contract liquidations followed. Subsequently, BTC and SOL weakened together, but the scale of CeFi liquidations was relatively low. Prices fell, but deleveraging did not occur. This structure indicates that selling pressure is not from retail investors or high-frequency leverage, but rather from passive adjustments at the position level. 3/ The pressure points to large holders of IBIT. Analysts believe that this round of volatility may originate from major IBIT holders, possibly one or more hedge funds with non-crypto backgrounds, using IBIT for highly concentrated position management. The larger the position, the lower the tolerance for price fluctuations. 4/ Position structure amplifies risk. Data shows that some funds hold extremely concentrated positions in IBIT, even single-asset allocations, mainly to isolate margin risks. Such structures have limited room for adjustment in a one-sided market and are easily pulled in the opposite direction by price movements. 5/ External factors accelerate imbalance. During the same period, silver prices plummeted, and yen arbitrage trades accelerated liquidation. Macro-level risk appetite shrank, adding pressure on leveraged positions of related funds, further reducing operational flexibility. 6/ Hedging attempts fail to reverse the trend. Some funds may try to hedge or delay risk release through highly leveraged options trading. However, as losses grow, hedging costs rise accordingly, and price volatility becomes a new source of pressure. 7/ Scale cannot be hidden over time. Due to the lag in 13F disclosures, related holdings are not expected to surface until mid-May. But based on trading volume and transaction traces, such risks are difficult to conceal long-term. The market has already reacted in advance. The entire logic starts from abnormal data, focusing on position structure and unsustainability. The conclusion is already reflected in the trend.

BTC-6,81%
SOL-9,96%
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