【$SOL Signal】Hold Cash and Wait — Downtrend Continuation, Deep Imbalance Needs Repair

$SOL Continued bearish decline after breaking below EMA20, currently consolidating weakly around 78.3. The 4H timeframe shows a downtrend continuation pattern with weak buying pressure.

🎯Direction: Hold Cash (NoPosition)

Market Analysis: Price has broken below all short-term moving averages (EMA20: 81.1). RSI (36.4) indicates oversold conditions but no divergence, and downward momentum remains. The key point is that open interest (OI) remains stable, but the funding rate (-0.0012%) is negative. Combined with falling prices, this suggests short squeeze or passive long liquidation pressure, rather than active selling by major players.

Hardcore Logic: OrderBook depth imbalance (4.65%) shows ask orders (sellers) significantly thicker than bid orders (buyers), especially in the 78.3-78.5 range forming a supply wall, which is a typical resistance zone for rebounds. Meanwhile, the buy/sell ratio (0.45-0.52) remains below 1, indicating market sentiment is bearish, dominated by active selling pressure.

Currently, there are no clear bullish signals: 1. Price has not tested key support near 76.5. 2. Depth imbalance remains uncorrected. 3. Volume contraction is not significant enough. The conditions for shorting are also not met: funding rate is not extremely positive, OI has not decreased, and there is no top divergence.

Strategy: Hold cash and wait. Watch for price near 76.5 to see if buying absorption (Pin Bar/volume spike bullish candle) occurs and if depth imbalance is repaired, then consider long positions on the left side. Alternatively, wait for a rebound to 80.5 (EMA20 and previous structure level) to show signs of stagnation before shorting on the right side.

Trade here 👇 $SOL

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